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Updates to Will's Bowl Mania previews are at the bottom of each game. Both the new and the original rankings can be found at the top of each game preview. Bowl Mania entries lock on Dec. 20, so be sure to set your slate of games now!

For more on how to play the game, see Will Harris' tips and strategy preview.

Previews are organized in the order of Will Harris' personal, updated confidence picks. Games that have moved at least three spots in the confidence ranks since the first edition on Dec. 10 are identified with an "up" or "down" arrow.

Toronto, Ontario
Jan. 5, 12:00 p.m. ET
Rutgers Knights versus Ball State Cardinals

BCS-league teams capping disappointing seasons with minor bowl bids that fall short of expectations usually make lousy picks. Rutgers certainly qualifies; the Knights had hopes of competing for a Big East title this year. Seven wins and the league's lowliest postseason assignment are not circumstances that often inspire great bowl performances. However, Rutgers is an extremely well-coached team with great psychological strength. They're a good candidate to defy the normal pattern of teams in similar situations. The most important factor here, though, is the fact that Ball State is in grave danger of simply being outclassed. Both teams average right around 31 points and 430 yards per game, but Rutgers is a hundred yards better on defense and the Knights' statistics were compiled against a more difficult schedule. Ball State doesn't run the ball poorly, but this is primarily a throwing team. Cardinals' quarterback Nate Davis leads the NCAA's 21st -ranked passing offense and is the latest in a long line of outstanding MAC signal callers. He's a big reason that Ball State has committed the fewest turnovers in the nation. The Knights, however, are well-equipped to handle passing teams. Rutgers sports the second-ranked pass defense in the land, and is 12th in pass efficiency defense. The Ball State line won't be able to protect Davis from the Knights' pass rush. As for the Cardinals' stop unit, it's in even bigger trouble. A defense that's surrendering nearly 200 rushing yards per game and five yards per carry is not going to like it when Ray Rice comes to town. The big-play speed of the Rutgers' receivers will be too much to handle as well. Davis will throw some strikes, and the Cardinals are far too potent to get shut out, but the defense won't get many stops. The Knights could deliver a lackluster performance and still win. A motivated Rutgers could squad produce a 40-point margin of victory. Rutgers 45-21

Dec. 14 update: Rutgers quarterback Mike Teel -- who was hampered by a bad thumb for much of the year -- is not yet practicing due to a rib injury. Knights coach Greg Schiano expects Teel to be at full strength by game time, however. Ball State is also getting healthier, especially at tailback. The Cardinals still won't be able to run, though, and the six-week layoff is not something with which anyone on staff has any experience. It's too early to really tell for sure, but based on the first few practices it looks like Schiano will be able to get his team to play well. It's still the biggest physical mismatch of the season, and I'll leave it at Rutgers 45-21

Dec. 19 update: Ball State has impressed this season, but the Cardinals are stepping up in class for this game. It appears that Teel will be healthier than he's been since the beginning of the year, but Ray Rice is still Ball State's biggest problem. The Knights' ground attack should be able to control the ball, the clock and the game. Ball State is potent offensively, but the Cardinals will be rendered one-dimensional by their inability to penetrate the Rutgers front on the ground. Protecting Davis will be a big issue as well, and the Knights' consistent pressure should force some turnovers. The only issue here is motivation, but even an average mental game from Rutgers will yield a comfortable win. The Knights are simply too well-coached to be a complete no-show, and I've encountered nothing to contradict my initial thought that any effort beyond that will mean a Rutgers victory. Rutgers 45-21

Jacksonville, Florida
Jan. 1, 1:00 p.m. ET
Texas Tech Red Raiders versus Virginia Cavaliers

Both schools have been postseason regulars in recent years, but Texas Tech's 2005 Cotton Bowl loss to Alabama marks the only New Year's Day appearance for either coach. With both sides excited about their assignment, the better team should win. The two couldn't be more different. Virginia is a defensive team with a woeful offense. Like most such teams, the Cavaliers run more than they throw, but it's a challenge for them to move the ball by any method. The Red Raiders' defense has been solid all year and matches up well enough to hold Virginia to close to its 24-points-per-game scoring average. If that happens, it won't be enough for the Wahoos. Virginia hasn't played an offense better than 66th ranked Georgia Tech all year, and it will be hard to prepare for a Tech attack that's unlike anything these players have ever seen. Tech doesn't even bother to run the ball these days, ranking dead last in the NCAA with a mere 60 yards per game on the ground. No matter, because the nation's top passing attack produces plenty on its own. Cavs defensive end Chris Long is a big-time player, but Raiders wideout Michael Crabtree -- this year's Biletnikoff honoree  will be the top playmaker on the field. Virginia can't solve the nation's top receiver, and if they double-team him too often quarterback Graham Harrell will exploit the fact that his other targets are covered by linebackers. The Tech defense is too sound and the Virginia offense too weak to allow the Cavaliers to shoot it out with the Raiders. There's just no way for Al Groh's squad to match scores here. The Cavaliers' only chance to win is to turn the game into a defensive struggle. Unfortunately for them, the only teams that have beaten Texas Tech in the past five years in games that featured fewer than 35 points are Alabama in 2005 and TCU in 2006. Both of those squads finished the year ranked second in the NCAA in total defense, and although the Wahoos have a fine stop unit, it's not in that class. History is not on their side, either. Mike Leach has an outstanding track record in bowls, but this is Virginia's first New Year's Day appearance since a 1993 Carquest Bowl berth. A five-interception day from Harrell is the Cavaliers' only chance. Texas Tech 38-17

Dec. 14 update: Surprisingly, Virginia is having trouble selling out its ticket allotment for this game. The Cavaliers do have a poor reputation for fan travel, but this is the most prestigious bowl berth for the school in 15 years. There is otherwise little new information to interpret. The annual Leach-to-"School X" rumors again have no bite and have not been a distraction. Raiders interim defensive coordinator Ruffin McNeil doesn't think Virginia's offense presents anything schematically that Tech hasn't faced this year. I bet Virginia defensive coordinator Mike London wishes he could say the same. Blowout still on tap; Texas Tech 41-21

Dec. 19 update: Virginia backers are pointing to Alabama's dominating defensive performance in the 2005 Cotton Bowl as evidence that the Raiders can't get it done against superior defenses. Tell that to Oklahoma. This is a better Tech offense than the one that couldn't do anything against Alabama two years ago, and the Virginia defense is not quite in the same class as the 2005 Tide unit. Leach's teams have been tremendous bowl performers and the Virginia defense will be gasping for air by the end of the first quarter. Don't disregard this offense as some Western gimmick that can't stand up to good defenses. If Texas Tech quarterbacks ever got a fraction of the credit for their production that Hawaii's Colt Brennan has received for his, the Raiders would be two-touchdown favorites in games like this. Virginia will slow these guys down a bit but in the end the Cavs just can't trade blows with this squad. Texas Tech 41-24

San Diego, California
Dec. 20, 9:00 p.m. ET
Utah Utes versus Navy Midshipmen

Utah enters this game off a miracle last-second loss to rival BYU, but it had won seven straight prior to the Holy War. Navy is also playing its best football recently, winning four straight to close the season. Utah has superior personnel and has played the tougher schedule, but Navy's offense is the best in years and can score on anyone. Unfortunately for the Mids, the defense hasn't stopped anybody, and the unit will be hard pressed to slow even a pedestrian Utah attack that lacks big-play capability. Expect both teams to move the chains with sustained drives all night. The difference will be Utah's defense, which leads the Mountain West in most statistical categories and has really stuffed the run late in the year. Utah plays Air Force every year, and the team's familiarity with triple-option schemes will be an edge many Navy opponents don't have. Neither team is a stranger to bowl success. Utah has won five straight bowl games, and while third-year head coach Kyle Whittingham has only presided over the last two, he was defensive coordinator for 10 years under previous bosses Urban Meyer and Ron McBride. Paul Johnson's Navy teams have also performed well in the postseason, including a 51-30 pasting of Colorado State in the 2005 Poinsettia Bowl, but now Johnson is off to Atlanta and new coach Ken Niumatalolo has to be a little overwhelmed right now. Navy is proud to return to San Diego, while Utah was delighted to secure the Mountain West's second-best bowl assignment despite finishing in a tie for third in the league standings. Navy always executes the triple option to perfection with additional preparation time, but Johnson's loss is incalculable. Utah will be able to make a few more stops and the Utes will win their fifth bowl in five years. Utah 41-21

Dec. 14 update: Utah's intensity level in preparations has been high, and Whittingham called Thursday's practice the best so far. The players have acknowledged that film preparation for Navy has been difficult, but concentration and focus are good. One player called the Mids' option attack "crazy stuff" but also praised the coaches for keeping the team on task. 'We're getting it," says linebacker Stephen Sylvester. The quality of Utah's defensive preparation for Navy's unusual offense is the biggest key to this game, and it appears to be going well so far. Darrell Mack, Utah's leading rusher and a San Diego native, lost his grandfather a few days ago. Mack has dedicated the bowl to the man who raised him and could be in for a big night. There's still no reason to believe that new Navy boss Ken Niumatalolo will be able to engineer an upset. Next to Rutgers, Utah is the safest of the big favorites, an unusual position for an academy team's bowl opponent. Utah 38-17

Dec. 19 update: For Bowl Mania contestants, the information on this opening game is top-notch intel because there's less time for anything to change. Based on what's happening right now, I can't say that I'm overwhelmed with either side's focus. For Utah players, practice seems to be getting a little mundane, and the team has been focused more on fun than preparation since arriving in San Diego. That's partly by design, as Kyle Whittingham's staff believes in getting the bulk of the work out of the way during the on-campus practices. That formula has worked well for the Utes, who have won four bowls in four years, all by comfortable margins. Utah is happy to be in San Diego and should be expected to play well, but this isn't a team determined to make some sort of statement. Navy, meanwhile, is showing signs of the ol' just-happy-to-be-here disease. "For us, we've already done our hard work," says Navy quarterback Kaipo-Noa Kaheaku-Enhada. "Going to a bowl game is the reward." Navy is a consistently solid bowl performer, and new coach Ken Niumatalolo is capable. Don't expect top form, though, and given the fundamental advantages the Utes enjoy, an upset would require the Mids' best game. The bottom line is that Utah can stop Navy some of the time, while Navy cannot stop Utah at all. The Utes can only stop themselves and will score every time they execute. Nothing about Navy says "upset candidate" right now. Utah continues to be among the safest of the big favorites. Utah 48-27

Glendale, Arizona
Jan. 2, 8:00 p.m. ET
Oklahoma Sooners versus West Virginia Mountaineers

Bob Stoops has made a career out of lopsided victories over teams with high-powered offenses. He'll get another chance in Glendale, along with the opportunity to avenge last year's Fiesta loss in the thriller against Boise State. The Sooners are a very accomplished defensive team, especially since the Big 12 is such an offensive league this year. Oklahoma ranks 18th in the nation in total offense, but that's only good for seventh place in the Big 12! Losing dynamic freshman tailback DeMarco Murray was a blow to the Oklahoma offense, and Sam Bradford's injury clearly cost the Sooners the Texas Tech game (and a shot at the national title.) Even without Murray, the Sooners can be explosive by both air and ground. Bradford is the NCAA leader in passing efficiency and he's got plenty of playmakers around him. Distributing the ball to explosive playmakers is definitely West Virginia modus operandi. Unlike Oklahoma, the Mountaineers are one-dimensional, but the production is nearly identical. West Virginia rarely throws, preferring to leave the ball in the capable hands of Pat White and Steve Slaton. When White does take to the air, Darius Reynaud -- like Marcus Monk at Arkansas -- provides the run-based attack with one big-time downfield threat. The West Virginia defense usually doesn't get the credit it deserves, but this is a formidable unit that worked very hard to improve this year after feeling like it cost the team the Big East title last season. That is particularly true of the secondary, and that group has improved its national ranking in pass defense from 109th in 2006 to 12th this year despite a nearly unchanged 2-deep. The Mountaineers are frustratingly inconsistent, but this team's "A" game is as good as anyone's. Will they bring it to Glendale? Probably not. The loss to Pittsburgh, was, as ESPN's Mike Patrick skillfully intoned on the air, the biggest disappointment in West Virginia football history. Never before has a team so heavily favored collapsed with so much at stake. The Fiesta would seem a grand consolation prize, but you have to prepare as hard as you play to beat teams like Oklahoma. Even if the Mountaineers do manage to summon some enthusiasm for their new bowl assignment, the recovery will come too late in the process for the team to be competitive. Oklahoma 38-17

Dec. 14 update: The Sooners have lost co-offensive coordinator Kevin Sumlin to the University of Houston, but Bob Stoops has been in this situation before. Defensive back Reggie Smith will miss the Fiesta due to an injury sustained in the Big 12 title game -- a big blow -- but defensive lineman Auston English should be back at full strength. Meanwhile, the West Virginia players and coaches are saying all the standard things, but there's no real indication that the Mountaineers have actually moved on from the Pittsburgh debacle. I still doubt that they'll heal in time to get adequately ready for the test at hand. Oklahoma 38-17

Dec. 19 update: I've tried to play devil's advocate with myself, but there's little chance that Rich Rodriguez' departure will yield anything positive for West Virginia in the short-term. If the constant questions about the Pittsburgh loss weren't enough, the Distraction-O-Meter is off the charts now. This was already an emotionally reeling team, and now the Mountaineers may need to worry more about getting embarrassed by Oklahoma than actually beating the Sooners. The only negative is that Oklahoma is now in a no-win situation for the second consecutive year. Losing to a coachless West Virginia squad would be a big setback for the Sooners' reputation, but now the team won't get any credit for a victory over an otherwise excellent foe. West Virginia is a nearly indefensible pick right now, but this game is a perfect example of why bowl contests are so difficult. This is a moribund West Virginia team at the moment, but there's still two weeks before kickoff. If something crops up to provide motivation and turn the team's mood from depressed to angry, this team could give anybody serious trouble. The Mountaineers are still a very dangerous team that simply oozes playmakers, and they're still making one of the most prestigious bowl appearances in the program's history. I like the way the Sooners match up, and right now they have all the advantages. Contests have early deadlines, however, and we are forced to pick 'em based on the information we have at the time, while considering the probability that certain factors could change. I don't expect something to happen to suddenly spark the under-prepared Mountaineers to an upset win; my point is simply that there's a lot going on in Morgantown right now that's rocking the status quo. And while that status quo is unquestionably good for the Sooners, it's really hard to say what might happen in the world of West Virginia football between now and kickoff. It's often wise not to make bold predictions about a game in which one team has lost its starting quarterback, since the new, unknown signal-caller could be anything from a disaster to a rallying point to a budding star about to break out. Such situations often seem to be worse for the wounded team than they actually are. The same principle is at work here. Exercising caution when events that could shake things up occur is wise, especially when your side already had the best of it before the shakeup. I can't put a positive spin on Rodriguez' departure. The Sooners looked like easy winners before, and now they certainly do. The point is simply that if it's a close call between Oklahoma and another quality pick, however, it would be worth remembering just how many unknowns are in play with West Virginia right now. The Mountaineers will probably show up and get blasted, but now everyone will be predicting that, and sometimes successful teams that have fallen hard get tired of hearing about what a disaster they are and decide to do something about it. It's unlikely, but the media-bashing of this program's situation could spawn both newfound motivation from West Virginia and overconfidence from Oklahoma. The Sooners are still high on my board, but while I grant that the Rodriguez situation will probably remain a positive for Oklahoma, there is some newfound risk here. Oklahoma 38-17

Pasadena, California
Jan. 1, 4:30 p.m. ET
Southern California Trojans versus Illinois Fighting Illini

It's easy to see why USC is the biggest favorite of the bowl season. The Trojans are making their fourth Rose Bowl appearance in five years, leaving Pasadena in 2003 only because they had to go demolish Oklahoma in the national title game in Miami. The Trojans are arguably the most talented team in the land, and they're finally healthy and played their best football of the season down the stretch. The defense is downright dominant, ranking in the top 10 in every major category. Pete Carroll is firmly established as one of the game's best strategists, motivators and he's a bowl specialists. Plus, he may be the best halftime coach of all time. And of course the Trojans are playing in a familiar stadium in their own backyard. Illinois, meanwhile, is ostensibly here because the Rose Bowl wanted to maintain the traditional conference alignment. Illinois is a young team, and the Rose berth is the school's first since 1984. The Illini are likely to be somewhat overwhelmed and intimidated, not to mention the risk of feeling "just happy to be there." Ron Zook was 0-2 in bowls at Florida, despite far better circumstances. He is not known as a situational strategist, to put it charitably, and the coaching matchup has Illini fans cringing. The Illini are a completely one-dimensional team facing a rush defense that allows fewer than 80 yards per game. However, the Illini do have two things working in their favor. First, this is a better team than most pundits seem to believe. Yes, they're one-dimensional, with a weaker passing game than Arkansas or West Virginia. But that rushing attack is every bit as good as Arkansas' or West Virginia's. Illinois will definitely move the ball, even on the Trojans. The Illini defense is solid as well, with a line that's helped the unit rank 23rd nationally in rush defense and 12th in sacks. Linebacker J Leman is as good as anybody that plays for USC and the pass defense is respectable. More importantly, the Illini may catch the Men of Troy at the best possible moment. Pac-10 titles and Rose Bowl berths are ho-hum for USC these days, and it's hard to envision the Trojan players pumping their fists and high-fiving each other when their opponent was announced. The Trojans' coming into this game both flat and overconfident it not just a possibility, it should be expected. Of course, that won't necessarily mean defeat, unless the Illini are really fortunate and Carroll can't work his second-half magic. USC is clearly the better team, and the coaching matchup alone makes picking Illinois to win impossible. Still, the Illini have beaten or hung with every good team they've faced this year and are unlikely to get blown out here. The Trojans, who seem to lack that championship mojo and killer instinct this year, have a good offense, not a great one like in recent years. They are a mere two-touchdown favorite over a very solid team, and anyone thinking that a USC loss would be some sort of monumental shocker hasn't learned much from the 2007 season. USC 31-21

Dec. 14 update: There's really little of interesting tidbits to report here. Both coaches have been primarily occupied with recruiting, but there's still plenty of excitement surrounding the game, at least from the Illinois side. There's honestly not much buzz about the game in USC circles, which is still cause for moderate concern. This game is simply not a really big deal for the Trojans, so it's hard to call for maximum effort and performance. Still, USC has a shutdown defense, a bounty of big-play threats on offense and a brilliant second-half coaching staff. Those are all assets that can get a team back into a game, and they make USC a team very well-equipped to overcome a flat start and early deficit. I still think the Trojans might have their hands full here, but their comeback profile makes them less vulnerable to an outright loss than most favorites in a similar situation. USC 31-21

Dec. 19 update: More and more pundits are predicting a USC blowout and media outlets everywhere are bashing the Illini for earning a BCS berth over Missouri and Arizona State. The Illini players are talking increasingly about the opportunity to earn respect for themselves and their conference. Illinois can be expected to bring an enthusiastic effort to Pasadena, and since this is a team that can earn some respect simply by staying competitive, it's unlikely that the Illini will lay down if behind in the fourth quarter. Sometimes teams have staked everything on a victory. Once such a must-win game gets out of reach the trailing team often quits because there is no value in a "respectable" final score. That won't be the case here, as the Illini are out for respect but aren't being given much of a chance to win. I expect a four-quarter effort from Illinois, but while I don't foresee a blowout I still don't think the Illini are a great upset candidate. Bowl practices have thus far revealed no bad news for the Trojans. It appears to be business as usual, and that's a good sign when that business is the Rose Bowl and the CEO is Pete Carroll. An early Illini lead would be no surprise, but the Trojans have too much coaching, too much defense, and to much all-around talent. USC 31-21

Detroit, Michigan
Dec. 26, 7:30 p.m. ET
Purdue Boilermakers versus Central Michigan Chippewas

Purdue was slated to be home for the holidays along with fellow bowl-eligible Big Ten mates Northwestern and Iowa until Illinois' surprise BCS berth opened a spot in the Motor City Bowl. The Boilermakers will face MAC champion Central Michigan in a rematch of a 45-22 Purdue victory back on Sept. 15. The Chippewas turned their season around after a 70-14 demolition at Clemson, finishing with an impressive rout of the Miami Redhawks in the MAC title game. Purdue, meanwhile, limped down the stretch with three straight November losses. The rematch figures to be even higher-scoring than the first game, as the Chips have improved drastically on offense since then but have done nothing to demonstrate that their defense will be able to contain quarterback Curtis Painter and the Boilers' potent passing attack. Purdue has slightly better personnel and a big advantage in the return game, but the Chippewas should be motivated by their earlier defeat and will be fueled by the partisan Detroit crowd. Joe Tiller's bowl record is abysmal, but the Boiler boss is well aware of that, and this year will experiment with a different practice schedule after seeking advice from several other coaches. There's a sense of dissatisfaction surrounding this Purdue team, and the players seemed relieved when the Rose Bowl's choice of Illinois granted them the opportunity to play another game. Central Michigan was playing better than Purdue down the stretch, and it is mainly an underdog due to the September loss. The Chippewas are certainly playing in the bowl that represents the pinnacle of achievement for a MAC squad, yet like BYU, the Chippewas won their league title and accompanying bowl last year. Though it's counterintuitive, the Boilers may actually be the more motivated team in this matchup. Tiller is getting proactive about the team's bowl slump, and the Boilers should best the younger, less-talented Chippewas for a second time. Purdue 48-34

Dec. 14 update: This situation does profile as a game that produces a lackluster performance from the favorite, so I'll be wary until after the Boilermakers have a few practices under their belts. Purdue fans sure aren't fired up for this lower-tier bowl, but as I indicated before, the players seem happy to have another shot on the field. We'll see, but for now it's status quo. Purdue 48-34

Dec. 19 update: Trouble is brewing in Mount Pleasant, as naturally CMU coach and former West Virginia assistant Butch Jones' name has been linked to the opening in Morgantown. This is a serious matter, as Jones has strong ties to West Virginia and has already experienced the pinnacle of MAC achievement by leading the Chippewas to a league title in his first year. Purdue has some disadvantages, too. Injuries and suspensions have left the team a little thin in some areas. The fan base has no interest in this game whatsoever. The opponent is out for revenge and playing on a familiar field. Most importantly, Tiller's bowl record at Purdue is atrocious. I mentioned previously that although Purdue fits the mold of disinterested favorite, there may be more to this team than meets the eye, that the Boilermakers might -- counter-intuitively -- be the more motivated team here. Early evidence supports this hypothesis, as bowl workouts have been very good and the attitude suggests that the team is anxious to take the field again. Any time a team acts like it can't wait to play again, it's a good sign. That appears to be the case with the Boilers, and I don't think this team even cares about the identity of the opponent. This Purdue team is drawing motivation from its own problems. It's obvious that the team really wants a chance to redeem itself for finishing the season with three straight losses. Less obvious but equally important is the Purdue players' realization that the progress made by Indiana and Michigan State is a threat to the program's standing within the Big Ten. It isn't readily apparent to most national observers, but there is more at stake for this Purdue team than for any other pre-New Year's Day bowl participant. Now that the coaching rumor mill is officially grinding Butch Jones to dust, the Boilers are moving up my board. Purdue 48-27

Memphis, Tennessee
Dec. 29, 4:30 p.m. ET
Mississippi State Bulldogs versus Central Florida Knights

Most of the publicity surrounding this game concerns Central Florida tailback Kevin Smith, the nation's leading rusher. Smith will get his yards against a decent Mississippi State rush defense, but the key to a UCF victory will be a defense that ranks first in Conference USA in several categories. The Bulldogs' offense is among the least productive in the NCAA, and the team especially struggles to throw the ball downfield. Mississippi State gained less yardage than the opponent in eight games this year, and that lack of firepower will be a big problem in trying to keep up with a Central Florida attack that produced 43 points per game during the Knights' seven-game winning streak to close the season. The Conference USA champion doesn't throw the ball well either, but with Smith running wild there's been scant need to go to the air. If the Bulldogs can find a way to slow Smith, they will have a chance here, but there's no easy cure for the offense's inability to put the ball in the end zone. Mississippi State has played a more difficult schedule than UCF, so yes, the raw statistics are skewed. However, the Knights took on Texas, South Florida and North Carolina State, so this is not simply a case of a team fattening up its stats against a weak schedule. Both teams will be very excited about playing in Memphis, and each will bring its "A" game. The bottom line is that the Bulldogs' offense lacks both playmakers and the ability to convert drive-sustaining third downs in the air. Central Florida boasts the better kicking and return units, so MSU won't win this one with field position. Unless the Dogs force turnovers in bunches -- and their weak pass rush says that's unlikely -- they simply won't be able to keep pace here. Central Florida 28-10

Dec. 14 update: Dec. practices are a novelty for Mississippi State, and the players showed a lot of rust early, then tired quickly in the team's first two practices. I still don't think the Bulldogs can trade blows here. They look and sound like a team that's already achieved what it set out to and is about to learn that bowls are not won by just showing up. Central Florida 28-10

Dec. 19 update: The Bulldogs continue to have lackluster workouts and are practicing as poorly as any other bowl team so far. Part of that is inexperience on the part of coaches and players alike, but now there's a new element involved. Defensive coordinator Ellis Johnson is widely expected to depart for greener pastures. He's allegedly a candidate for the same position at both Georgia Tech and South Carolina. Meanwhile, in Orlando, the big news is that Kevin Smith -- the nation's leading rusher -- will postpone a shot at the NFL and return for his senior season. As you'd expect, this news was received joyfully by all associated with the UCF program. Smith's blockers will be fired up to get him the 181 yards needed to break Barry Sanders' single-season rushing record. He may not get it against a capable SEC defense, but the Knights are potent enough to put the ball in the end zone a few times. The Bulldogs look terrible so far and coach Sylvester Croom is especially unhappy with the mental toughness of his offense. Again, Mississippi State simply cannot trade points here. The Knights are late climbers on my board. Central Florida 28-10

San Francisco, California
Dec. 28, 8:30 p.m. ET
Maryland Terrapins versus Oregon State Beavers

This is one of the toughest bowls to call, because Oregon State matches up well with Maryland, but the Beavers are severely handicapped in the intangibles department. The Terrapins don't run the ball particularly well to begin with, and the Beavers boast the nation's second-ranked run defense. Maryland doesn't throw particularly well, either, and the Terps rank 107th in sacks allowed. Oregon State's pass rush is the third best in the country, so the ACC entrant figures to have big trouble at the line of scrimmage. The Beavers, of course, are no prize themselves offensively, and the team is still awaiting word on the final status of quarterback Sean Canfield and star tailback Yvenson Bernard, both of whom missed the Oregon game with injuries. If those guys are healthy by bowl time, Oregon State will clearly have the superior team. The problem for the Beavers is that they don't want to be in San Francisco. It was practically assumed in the West Coast media that Arizona State would earn an at-large BCS bid. Illinois intervened, but had the Sun Devils been chosen instead, the Beavers would likely have landed the prestigious Holiday Bowl berth. The Sun Bowl was won by the Beavers last year and is considered a plum assignment among most Pac-10 schools. The Sun announced that if Arizona State didn't make the BCS and fell to the Holiday, it would invite the winner of the Civil War game. After Oregon State held off Oregon in overtime, the Beavers players were heard chanting "San Diego, San Diego!" on the field. With the Sun as the other possibility, and sole possession of third place in the conference secured, OSU looked to be in decent bowl shape. Then the Sun Bowl invoked its no-repeat clause and invited Oregon anyway. The Beavers couldn't even get the consolation prize of a trip to Las Vegas, as that bid went to a 6-6 UCLA squad with no head coach. This is a clear case of a team that is wholly unenthusiastic about its bowl assignment, and such teams are prone to lose. Unfortunately, Maryland doesn't match up very well on paper, making this a tough call. Maryland 20-17

Dec. 14 update: Ralph Freidgen apparently conducted some locker room polling immediately after Maryland's bowl-clinching win over North Carolina State to close the season. When asked which of the team's bowl possibilities was the preferred destination, the Emerald Bowl was a nearly unanimous choice. I'm a little surprised by this, but the news is no less valuable. This team is backing it up in practice, too. Regular readers know that my approach to predictive analysis places a lot of emphasis on practice, so don't take me lightly when I say that based on my studies of all of the bowl teams' practices, Maryland is practicing better than any team in the country. This is a very significant factor, especially considering the established fact that the Beavers were considerably less than pleased with their bowl bid. This greatly increases my faith that the underdog Terrapins will come out on top against an Oregon State squad that clearly has the best of the matchups. Unfortunately, as revealing as practice habits are, we cannot handicap games on that information alone. Star Beavers tailback Yvenson Bernard will play, though likely not at 100 percent effectiveness. Lyle Moevao will start over the ailing Sean Canfield at quarterback. The Beavers closed the season with three straight wins with Moevao at the helm, but the opponents were Washington, Washington State and a Dennis Dixon-less Oregon squad. Moevao is less accurate than Canfield and has a weaker arm. He was an unheralded junior-college transfer, while Canfield was a highly-touted recruit. Moevao is also less experienced, though he had thrown for 280 yards in relief duty prior to his three-game stint as a starter. Moevao has not played that poorly; the point I'm making is simply that the team would be much better off with a healthy Canfield, so news that his shoulder has not improved enough for him to start is not good for the Beavers.

One other tidbit that I learned is that Oregon State did prefer the Emerald Bowl to the Sun Bowl, contrary to my earlier supposition. The team seems just as depressed about missing the Holiday as I thought, however, and I still expect this to be an underprepared group. The Beavers have been practicing, but have not yet watched any film. They've decided that well, maybe San Francisco will be fun, so the mood has lifted a little bit. But this is not a team that's concerning itself with how it can improve its chances of beating Maryland. It's still easy to question how the Terps are going to score. Oregon State's defensive front is truly formidable, but many expected Maryland to field the ACC's best offensive line before injuries struck, and the Terps are a bit healthier now. Maryland ran the ball down Rutgers' throat, so there's at least some precedent. Plus, good practice habits are one of the critical factors behind dropped passes, inaccurate throws, poor route running and bad timing in the passing game. I'm optimistic that the matchup isn't so bad that it can't be overcome by the motivational edge. Ralph Freidgen is an outstanding bowl coach and these teams are on different planets right now. Beaver backers should get off. If you really like the way Oregon State matches up with Moevao under center, keep the Maryland pick low in your rankings. But bail on OSU, regardless. Fear the Turtle; the Terps are shooting up my board. Maryland 27-10>

Dec. 19 update: The Terrapins finally had their first poor practice, but it came in the team's first workout since reconvening after exams. That's the worst workout for most teams, so this isn't really cause for much alarm. That's especially true considering that nothing has really changed for Oregon State. The Beavers are just not that interested in the Emerald Bowl. Mike Riley is undefeated in his three bowls, but the man on the other sideline has impressed as well. It would not be unreasonable to rank Friedgen among the very best bowl coaches in the nation, and there's little doubt that Maryland will be the more motivated and prepared team. Is that enough? The Beavers' stingy defense, ferocious pass rush and consistently productive ground game would seem to give the Pac-10 entrant most of the advantages in this matchup. That's certainly true of the overall numbers for the season. An examination of recent form, however, suggests that Maryland has made improvements in key areas. During the last three games, Chris Turner's passing production has skyrocketed. Friedgen is considered one of the better offensive minds in the game, and his sophomore signal-caller is clearly developing. Also, the Terps run defense has stiffened considerably. Maryland yielded roughly 140 yards per game and four yards per carry for the season, but fewer than 70 per game and 2.6 per carry down the stretch against Florida State, Boston College and North Carolina State. Oregon State star tailback Yvenson Bernard is still ailing, and Moevao has already been discussed. Riley's scheme is built around running Bernard to set up the big-strike vertical passing game, and the team's personnel is just not in ideal condition right now. The Beavers' defense is too strong to just roll over, but I really question how Oregon State is going to score. Maryland 27-10

New Orleans, Louisiana
Jan. 7, 8:00 p.m. ET
LSU Tigers versus Ohio State Buckeyes

Of all the story lines and subplots that will surround this game between now and Jan. 7, the most interesting may be the matchup between Jim Tressel and Les Miles. Scholarly and unassuming, Tressel is the better coach by any standard save recruiting prowess. Arrogant, brash and widely disliked even among LSU fans, Miles is dying to earn a championship ring to quiet the critics who mock his strategic ineptitude. Miles not only has his shot, but he is the unanimous favorite. That's due in no small part to Miles' aforementioned recruiting prowess, as well as that of his predecessor, Nick Saban. The Tigers ooze talent and athleticism at every position. That's less true of Ohio State, but while the raw materials may be a slightly lower grade, the finished product is basically the same. Both offenses are run-first units, but not without solid balance in the passing game. The defenses are even better, and both feature tons of NFL talent, including near-household names like LSU's Glenn Dorsey and OSU's James Laurinaitis. LSU has the slightly better offense, Ohio State the slightly better defense. The Buckeyes' superior pass rush provides an edge against LSU's shaky protection. LSU is also the second-most penalized team in the nation, while the Buckeyes draw few flags. The Tigers get to play in the Superdome. And on and on. Every fundamental and statistical matchup and detail will be dissected between now and kickoff, claiming dozens of slight advantages for each side. In the end, no one will uncover an edge that can be safely considered significant.

The underdog actually looks like the slightly better team on paper, but there's a legitimate argument that the Buckeyes have played a slightly softer schedule. As with nearly all national title games, these teams are evenly matched. If both teams play at the same level, it will be a stalemate that's too close to call. Usually that means the game will be won by the minds as much as the bodies. Both teams obviously want a win, but who wants it enough to sweat and bleed for it, not just during the game but every waking moment between now and then? The stakes for LSU are high. A second national title in five years could mean that the Tigers supplant USC as the most dominant team of the decade. For Ohio State, the stakes are even higher. The Buckeyes are playing for the respect of the nation, respect that would already have been granted to most programs with 55 wins, a national title and four BCS appearances in the previous five years. For many fans, though, the Buckeyes' embarrassment at the hands of Florida last year simply confirmed their long-held conviction that Ohio State isn't any good, that the Big Ten isn't any good, and that football players from the North are fat and slow. Nationally, Ohio State will be considered inferior to LSU, Florida, USC, Oklahoma and any warm-weather team having a great year until the Buckeyes beat a highly-regarded SEC team in a big-time bowl. The Buckeyes are well aware of this. This is more than a big-time bowl. It's the national championship, and LSU is the perfect opponent. For the Buckeyes players and coaches, this game is more than an opportunity to win a national title. It's an opportunity to erase the effects of the worst day of their lives. A chance at national-title redemption doesn't come around very often for a given group of players, and when it does those players usually perform in a way that reminds us that atonement is a powerful motivator. Remember Florida's dismantling of Florida State the year after the Tommie Frazier beatdown? Ohio State will play the very best game it can possibly play. That will be more than enough to win. Ohio State 24-9

Dec. 14 update: It's obvious that the Les Miles saga will not end until Michigan hires a coach. The school doesn't seem to be in any hurry, and the questions are simply not going away. This will continue to be a huge distraction for what already figured to be the less-focused team. I am growing more and more confident in a Buckeyes victory each day. On a side note, I like James Laurinaitis for MVP. Laurinaitis' versatility is his best asset. An outstanding tackler, he can play the middle, run sideline to sideline, pressure the quarterback and drop into coverage. He profiles as the type of well-rounded defender who could theoretically be involved in nearly every play. Odds are that could turn out to be more than theory. This guy has Butkus and Nagurski trophies, and The Professor will have him so coached-up he'll seem to be in exactly the right spot all game. Ohio State 24-9

Dec. 19 update: So much for the distraction of the Les Miles saga dragging on forever. With Rodriguez in Ann Arbor the speculation is now over and only time will tell whether the distraction was a huge negative for LSU during the past two weeks. Nothing else about my take on this game has changed since the above commentary, but distractions are always bad for preparation and focus. Now that the media circus surrounding Miles' intentions is subsiding, the Tigers are better off. Another week of studying this one hasn't changed my view that it still won't be enough to beat an Ohio State team that is not going to beat itself. When top teams collide, the impact of experience, coaching and desire cannot be understated. Much more goes into defining the "better" team than the oft-cited "talent level," and while LSU is certainly more athletic it's the Buckeyes who boast most of the principal advantages. Don't overlook the fact that between his time at Youngstown State and Ohio State Jim Tressel has already coached in a whopping eight national title games, winning five. I'd say he understands the drill by now. The Bucks will win what should be the lowest-scoring national championship game since Oklahoma's 13-2 win over Florida State in 2000. Ohio State 20-9

Nashville, Tennessee
Dec. 31, 4:00 p.m. ET
Florida State Seminoles versus Kentucky Wildcats

Kentucky returns to the scene of last year's upset win over Clemson, and this time the Wildcats draw the elder Bowden. Rich Brooks' crew fell off the national radar late in the season, losing four of five down the stretch. Injuries and a tough schedule -- none of the Cats' last 10 opponents had losing records -- seemed to wear the team down. This is still the best Kentucky team in years. Andre' Woodson leads an explosive offense that's been surprisingly effective on the ground and will get a big boost from the return of finally-healthy tailback/returnman Rafael Little, a former first team all-SEC performer. The defense, while below average by SEC standards, has improved dramatically from a year ago. Florida State, meanwhile, is not exactly what you'd call a program on the rise. The Seminoles haven't topped eight regular-season wins since 2003, and disappointing third-tier bowl bids are becoming the norm. The team's offensive struggles have been well-documented, with the primary hallmarks a nonexistent running game, immensely gifted but uncoachable receivers and inconsistent-to-poor quarterback play. The defense is showing major chinks in its armor as well. Despite its reputation, the Seminoles stop unit ranked in the bottom half of the ACC this year in run defense, pass defense, pass efficiency defense, scoring defense, total defense and sacks. The Kentucky offense is certainly better than FSU's, and the defense isn't that far behind. Kentucky's pass defense is ranked 21st; its pass efficiency defense 49th. Florida State's numbers in those categories are 73rd and 54th. Granted, part of the explanation is that the Wildcats' opponents got rich on the ground whereas Seminole foes were forced to the air by a stouter run defense. The differential in run defense isn't vast, though, and it's hard to argue that Kentucky played an appreciably weaker schedule. The Cats certainly fared better against Florida, outgaining the Gators by 84 yards. The Seminoles were blown out, posting a negative yardage differential of 254 yards. This is clearly not the Florida State of old.

Florida State's biggest problems may be off the field, however. Many think that Bobby Bowden is uninvolved and out of touch, a mere figurehead nowadays. That is untrue. These detractors simply fail to realize that coaches who reach Bowden's stature no longer coach players; they coach coaches. Bowden is still in charge, although the university's decision to plan ahead for life after the 79-year-old's retirement is laudable. Offensive coordinator Jimbo Fisher is the anointed successor, and that's a potentially divisive move. Fisher isn't even a year into his tenure in Tallahassee, and 22 points per game isn't a success by any standard. How does 24th-year defensive coordinator Mickey Andrews feel about this? More importantly for these purposes, how do the players feel about it? It's probably safe to say that everyone around the Florida State program is not of one mind on the subject. Added to the coaching distraction is an academic scandal that could cause several unnamed players to miss the bowl. Even without the distractions, it's really hard to imagine the Seminoles players getting too fired up for this one. Not a single one of these kids chose Florida State because he dreamed of someday meeting the Kentucky Wildcats in the Gaylord Hotels Music City Bowl. Kentucky backers have to worry about the strategic sideline mismatch between Bowden and Brooks, but overall the Cats look like the far better team in the far better situation. Kentucky 38-24

Dec. 14 update: It's true that the Wildcats were hoping for a Chick-fil-A bid, but the opportunity to play Florida State has taken some of the blah out of a return trip to Nashville. The players seem fired up about meeting a program that's been to 26 consecutive bowl games. In Tallahassee, there's no buzz about this game whatsoever. The Jimbo Fisher announcement is dominating the headlines. In my next update -- on Dec. 19, a day before Bowl Mania picks are locked -- I'll have an in-depth look at the impact of the situation on bowl preparation and team morale. From a fundamental standpoint, this game is growing rapidly in my esteem. The more I study this one, the more it becomes obvious that the Wildcats are the better team. Kentucky should be a decent-sized favorite in this game. The biggest obstacle is coaching, specifically whether the Wildcats can avoid the "intimidation via reputation" that still so often hurts so many of Florida State's nonconference opponents. I think Kentucky is at risk of being a little too awed, and while it seems counterintuitive to think that the FSU name carries much weight these days, it has absolutely been a factor in some recent nonleague games. Apart from the coaching issues the Cats are a very solid pick. Kentucky 38-24

Dec. 19 update: The big news in Nashville is the academic suspensions that Florida State will suffer as a result of a cheating scandal. It's been known for weeks that the Seminoles were going to have some suspensions, but now Bobby Bowden has admitted that approximately 25 players are expected to miss the Music City Bowl. Nearly half that number are believed to be starters, although no one is naming names yet. Obviously, that's not good for a Florida State team that's already deservedly an underdog. The Wildcats have a far more productive offense, and the talent gap on defense is not as appreciably wide as it was a few years ago. Now, with a depleted roster, the Noles are in big trouble. Only one thing gives me pause. Bowls are the domain of coaches. Preparation and motivation have long reigned supreme among postseason factors, and that's increasingly true. The parity of recent years -- and especially 2007 -- has thrust even more of the responsibility for bowl wins onto the coaches. After Boise State's thrilling win in last year's Fiesta Bowl, more and more coaches will turn to unusual plays and formations to gain an advantage this year. Expect some commentator to anoint this bowl season the "Year of the Trick Play" before it's over. Any and all coaching-related issues have Kentucky at a major disadvantage. Bowden may be 157 years old, but he still has the second-most Division I-A wins ever, not to mention an expensive staff. Rich Brooks is simply out of his league when both sides have a month to prepare. Having the better team is a pretty big edge, and the FSU suspensions will only widen the gap, but I can't defend such a coaching mismatch as a top pick. Kentucky has not been practicing as well as I'd like, and while the Cats should control the game, it would not be that shocking to see them blow it on three or four big plays that decide the outcome. Kentucky 38-24

New Orleans, Louisiana
Dec. 21, 8:00 p.m. ET
Florida Atlantic Owls versus Memphis Tigers

Howard Schnellenberger's Florida Atlantic program has only been playing football since 2001, so earning a league title and bowl berth this soon is very impressive. The Owls upset favored Troy on the road to close the season in what was essentially the Sun Belt championship game. Now the Owls are bowling in the Big Easy, facing a Memphis squad that won five of its last six to earn a fourth postseason trip in five years. Both teams bring potent passing attacks to the table in this matchup, and it's unlikely that either defense will be able to do much to slow the opposition. Defense has been a huge problem for both sides, and neither team has mounted much of a running game all year. A high-scoring game is in the offing; both teams have protected the passer very well while neither defense has mounted any sort of pass rush all season. Florida Atlantic leads the nation in turnover margin, but the Owls feature the worst special teams of any bowl-bound team. It's worth noting that the Sun Belt representative has actually played a tougher schedule, thanks to nonleague tilts with Florida, Kentucky, USF, Oklahoma State and Minnesota. Memphis, meanwhile, has lost to two Sun Belt teams already this year, and the Tigers' best win came against a subpar Southern Miss squad. Tommy West's team has been bowling before, however, and the Tigers won the New Orleans Bowl in 2003. The Owls may be a little overwhelmed by their first bowl trip, especially in as distracting a setting as the Crescent City. On paper, these teams are similar, but the Tigers have senior leadership at quarterback and more relevant experience. Memphis 48-41

Dec. 14 update: I still like the Owls as a "just-happy-to-be-here" candidate. Schnellenberger is no fool, and he's trying to build a program. Everybody wants to win, of course, but Schnellenberger knows well the opportunities provided by a program's breakthrough bowl berth. He knows that Florida Atlantic's situation calls for prioritizing longer-term gains right now. Hence, he's spending a lot of time recruiting and most of the practices have been devoted to getting a look at the younger players. FAU backers, try this one on: "We know that we need to push the tempo in practice if we expect to go in and get a win." That's not what I'd want to hear from my team's quarterback after the team's fourth practice, but those are the words of Rusty Smith as reported on FAU's Web site on Dec. 12. It is true that this game is a bigger deal for FAU than for Memphis. Fan enthusiasm isn't even comparable, and Memphis is only expected to sell about a quarter of the tickets that it did to the 2003 New Orleans Bowl. Still, the Tigers are enthusiastic about this game. Overconfidence is normally the Conference USA entrant's enemy in this bowl, but the Tigers are 0-2 against Sun Belt foes this year. The bottom line right now is that Memphis looks like a team that's about to play well in a bowl and Florida Atlantic doesn't. The Tigers are a climber on my board. Memphis 48-27

Dec. 19 update: Florida Atlantic's bowl preparations got off to a rocky start, but this is a very coachable group and the team's focus has picked up in recent days. I like the Owls' chances to largely avoid the distractions New Orleans offers. Memphis, however, seems even more focused. I love the Tigers' approach to the game this year; this group looks every bit like a team poised to win its bowl. A matchup with a demoralized also-ran would have rendered the Tigers a top pick, and they're high on my board despite facing an excited FAU squad making its first ever postseason appearance. This is a very self-assured Memphis team, but not an overconfident one. I expect both sides to put up some serious yardage, but certain edges stand out for the Tigers. The Memphis receivers present major matchup problems for the shorter FAU corners, and the Tigers' rushing attack should provide enough balance to create several big-play opportunities against single coverage downfield. This is no longer the same Memphis team that dropped two early-season contests against Sun Belt foes. The Tigers have the confidence, experience and talent to come out on top. Memphis 48-27

Fort Worth, Texas
Dec. 31, 12:30 p.m. ET
Air Force Falcons versus California Golden Bears

Once a single play away from the No. 1 ranking, California dropped six of its last seven games, including a clunker at Stanford to end the season. The Bears have given the Louisville Cardinals a run for their money in the competition to be the bubble-burst poster child, and now the team has been exiled to yet another minor bowl outpost. The Air Force offense is very potent, especially to foes that rarely see that style of play. The Bears have shown little interest in playing winning football of late, and it's hard to envision a team that's been this demoralized and unmotivated showing the passion and focus for practice and film preparation required to slow down the Falcons' quirky attack. Plus, it's not like the Bears have some shutdown run defense. That unit ranks only 58th nationally and seventh in the Pac-10. Cal backers expect this game to be won by the team's playmakers on the offensive side of the ball, and it's true that the Bears are the far more athletically talented team. However, the Falcons have been solid against the run all year and allowed only 57 yards per game during a three-game winning streak to close the season, albeit against poor competition. As for the Bears' passing game ... Jeff Tedford has a reputation as a top quarterback guru, but junior Nate Longshore is still unimpressive despite status as a top recruit out of high school and plenty of starting experience. Longshore has completed fewer than 60 percent of his passes, for a weak 6.73 yards per attempt and only 16 touchdowns against 13 interceptions. These numbers are especially damning given that the Bears boast an NFL-caliber receiving corps and a solid offensive line that ranks fifth in the nation in fewest sacks allowed! Air Force has the superior special teams units and the disciplined Falcons rank among the best in the land at avoiding penalties, while the Bears rank close to the bottom. The Falcons will be fired up to play such a talented team, in the Armed Forces Bowl no less, while the Bears are unlikely to be inspired by such a lowly bowl assignment. Air Force 34-24

Dec. 14 update: I was pretty critical of quarterback Nate Longshore and coach Jeff Tedford in my original preview. Since that was written, Tedford has announced that Longshore has played much of the season with a bone chip in his ankle. That certainly mitigates my feelings about Longshore's subpar year, but it doesn't change my feelings about the Bears' fate against Air Force. I've seen it a hundred times before: Whenever a coach paints a game as a chance for recruiting exposure in a particular area, his team gets whipped. The comments almost always accompany unwanted bowl berths or faraway road games against smaller programs. Such remarks usually indicate that the coach is groping for positives in the absence of any motivating factors. "Why in the world are you guys in the position of having to play this game, coach?" a reporter will essentially ask. "Well, I dunno, we just play the games on the schedule," the coach will reply, "but it's a great opportunity to enhance our recruiting efforts in State X." Tedford sounds just like Minnesota coach Tim Brewster the week before the Gophers' loss to Florida Atlantic. His favored team will meet with the same result. Air Force 34-24

Dec. 19 update: The good news for California is that the mood surrounding the team has lightened a bit. The bad news is that while carefree is better than morose, carefree is still no good. The Bears seem to be out of their funk a little, but not to the extent that anybody really cares about playing a service academy in the Helicopter Bowl. The younger players are getting equal time with the starters in practice, and Tedford hasn't even bothered with a scout team. Huh? Hey Coach, it's hard enough to prepare for this crazy triple-option stuff that your defense has never ever seen before. I understand that it's difficult to simulate in practice, but how does not even trying help you out? Cal backers are hanging their hopes on one thing: that the Bears' tremendous array of superior skill players gets healthier and lights up the scoreboard by simply outclassing the lesser athletes. That's possible, but it's also very possible that Cal hits 40 points and still loses badly. Air Force is not Texas Tech, or even Navy. The Falcons only have the nation's 40th ranked offense, and that's against a Mountain West schedule that was awfully light on the non-conference front. However, the coaches of every team the Falcons faced save South Carolina State see this offense regularly, and it was still good enough for second-best in the Mountain West. California's rush defense was decent on the year, but the bottom fell out toward the end of the season, as the Bears allowed a staggering 231 yards per game on the ground down the stretch against USC, Washington and Stanford. Extended preparation time is good for execution-oriented attacks, and the academy teams always have their offenses humming in the bowls. Everybody knows that the better team doesn't always win, but it's harder to break the habit of assuming that the more talented team is always the better team, win or lose. California is easily the more talented team in this matchup. Yet the Bears are probably going to lose this one big, and when they do it won't be because the more talented and therefore better team was upset by the lesser team. It will be because Air Force is simply the better team. Talent is but one component of "better," and often not even the most important one. (LSU backers, are you paying attention?) Air Force 45-31

San Antonio, Texas
Dec. 29, 8:00 p.m. ET
Penn State Nittany Lions versus Texas A&M Aggies

It's very difficult to make a case for Texas A&M in this game. The coaching disparity alone is almost enough to pick Penn State with great confidence. Joe Paterno has led the Lions to 33 bowl games, and has only lost once as a bowl favorite. The Aggies, meanwhile, have replaced Dennis Franchione with Mike Sherman, but will be coached here by defensive coordinator Gary Darnell. Much has been made of A&M's impressive win over a Texas team that was playing very well coming into that game, but few are giving credit where it's really due. Whatever his other failings as a coach, Franchione is one of the premier game-planners in the coaching ranks. He knew his run-first squad matched up poorly with a Texas defense that allows plenty by air but little yardage on the ground, and he came up with yet another superb plan to attack the opponent's weakness in a way that masked his own. The result: more deer-in-the-headlights looks from the outclassed Mack Brown, a career day throwing from Stephen McGee and open running lanes for the Aggies backs, who were given the ball at just the right times. But Fran is gone now, and this game is one of the biggest coaching mismatches of the bowl season. Additionally, Penn State has the superior personnel and the far better defense. The offenses are very similar in production, though not in scheme. The Lions do have far more gamebreakers at wideout, but it's their stop unit that gives the Big Ten representative the commanding edge. Penn State ranks sixth nationally in rush defense, ninth in total defense, second in sacks and 10th in tackles for loss. The secondary has not met expectations, but it's a lot better than what Texas put on the field and A&M is ill-equipped to exploit it anyway, especially with Darnell calling the shots. Penn State is a good team, not a great team, but Texas A&M has only one impressive win and has been crushed away from Kyle Field this year. The only advantages the Aggies have here are a partisan crowd, a demonstrated ability to hang onto the football and kickoff returners who will give Penn State's beleaguered coverage unit trouble. That's not going to be enough, particularly considering the coaching turmoil. Penn State 38-17

Dec. 14 update: Penn State has lost its safeties coach to the defensive coordinator position under new Baylor coach Art Briles. There are two general axioms about the inevitable assistant coaching moves at this time of year. First, established programs with successful and experienced head coaches -- like Penn State and Oklahoma -- are more accustomed to, and therefore better equipped to deal with losing assistants right before the bowls. Also, an assistant who leaves for a coordinator position usually is not the red flag about the state of his old team that a move might suggest. The Lions are having difficulty arranging their practice schedule around exams. That's an issue for a lot of teams this time of year, but it appears that the team's practices at the bowl site will be more revealing than the early ones. More time spent studying these teams' resumes has yielded a little more concerned about Penn State's rush defense in this game, though not enough for it to slip much on my board. Penn State 34-20

Dec. 19 update: There's a lot of rumbling from State College, and little of it involves getting ready to beat Texas A&M. Paterno had already voiced significant concern over the team's practice schedule, which is much different than in years past due to changes in the university's academic calendar. Now rumors are flying that Paterno will retire or announce a timetable for retirement after the bowls. Longtime defensive assistant Tom Bradley, in his 29th year overall and eighth as coordinator, is supposedly a serious candidate to replace Rich Rodriguez at West Virginia. Paterno has admitted that his biggest challenge this offseason will be keeping his staff together. I've been predicting that Greg Schiano would be the next Penn State coach for two years now, and there's evidence to suggest that Schiano spoke with Penn State before declining the Michigan job. It's hard to say just what's going on or whether any of the rumors individually have bite, but it's certain that this team faces a greatly increased level of distraction. As for the Aggies, they appear to be a fairly loose team headed into the bowl. There are a lot of negatives in the Texas A&M coaching situation, and there's nothing to indicate that there's any dominant motivating factor at work in College Station. However, while this team may not be what you'd call determined, it does appear to be having fun getting ready to play. Paterno's bowl prowess is second to none, but if there were ever a year in which the Lions were a little underprepared, 2007 is an excellent candidate. Penn State is still the choice, but slipping on my board. Penn State 34-24

Boise, Idaho
Dec. 31, 2:00 p.m. ET
Fresno State Bulldogs versus Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets

Paul Johnson is the new head coach at Georgia Tech, but he has said he will not interfere with preparations for the bowl, which will be coached by outstanding defensive coordinator Jon Tenuta. Coaching situations like this always provide challenges for bowl teams. Assistants are looking for new jobs. Interim bosses, usually coordinators, have more responsibility and are dragged away from their regular duties. Generally, confusion reigns. Chalk up an intangible edge for a Fresno team that always has intangibles on its side when Pat Hill leads the Dogs against a BCS conference foe. Plus, the Yellow Jackets aren't exactly thrilled to be making their second trip in five years to the lowly Humanitarian Bowl in chilly Boise. Fresno State has a lot going for it in this matchup. The Bulldogs' problem is the matchup itself. This team cannot stop the run. Tech can't throw it too well, but the Jackets are the top rushing team in the ACC and star tailback Tashard Choice is a serious concern for any WAC defense. Fresno State is also a running team, but that's a big edge for the Jackets, whose outstanding run defense starts with a defensive front that leads the nation in sacks and ranks second in tackles for loss. Oh, and the Bulldogs are now without leading rusher Ryan Mathews, lost to injury in the season's final game. Throw in the Georgia Tech special teams, the very best in the nation, and this game looks like a real challenge for the Bulldogs, despite all the intangibles. It's not unreasonable to expect Georgia Tech to just go through the motions in an unwanted bowl in a faraway frozen land. There are some circumstances that may mitigate the negatives, however. Tenuta is one of football's top coordinators, and very popular with his players. The search for a head coach is at least resolved. Tech was disappointed in its 2005 Emerald Bowl berth, and the lackadaisical attitude and poor preparation showed in a blowout loss to Utah. The players and coaches all admitted afterward that the team was unhappy with its postseason assignment and had not prepared well. Amends were not quite made last year when a bid to upset West Virginia in the Gator Bowl fell short. If the Yellow Jackets manage to draw motivation from anywhere, this will be a blowout. Georgia Tech 30-10

Dec. 14 update: It seems that Fresno State players were hoping for the Hawaii Bowl berth a little more than I originally suspected. That's a negative, but not a huge one. Pat Hill always gets his team fired up for games against BCS opponents, and ultimately the Bulldogs will probably practice and play well. Paul Johnson is dominating the headlines in Atlanta, Tenuta refuses to comment on the prospect of staying on as defensive coordinator and no one is satisfied with bowling in Boise, Idaho. Still, Tenuta and the Yellow Jackets seem to be making lemonade from their lemons. The mood of the team is loose, not depressed. It rings true when players say they're looking forward to the trip, citing positives like seeing a faraway scenic part of the country, or the opportunity to practice or play in the snow. This won't be an ultra-focused team bent on winning, but it won't be a despondent one either. I still think a motivated Tech blows this game open, and an average performance delivers a comfortable win. I'll be updating you on further evidence of the teams' mental state on Dec. 19. For now I'm still thinking Jackets. Georgia Tech 34-10

Dec. 19 update: Fresno State is in danger of being dominated physically, while Georgia Tech is in danger of being dominated mentally. There's not much new information coming from Atlanta these days. Johnson is interviewing defensive coordinator candidates, but neither he nor Tenuta will say if the interim coach is one of them. My feeling is that Tenuta will be moving on, but it's really hard to get a read on how important this game is to this team. Tech will remain high on my board, however, because if the Jackets are at least halfway motivated this will be a good matchup for them. Fresno State is no example of WAC finesse. The Bulldogs are a tough, physical, blue-collar team that pounds the ball between the tackles on offense, setting up the play-action pass, then swarms to the ball with a traditionally stingy rush defense. Unfortunately, Pat Hill doesn't have the personnel to pursue his standard game plan here. With no experience at tailback and a banged-up defense that's been the school's softest against the run in years, Fresno State is a poor match for a Georgia Tech team with a super front seven and a power running game. As with Rutgers, the Jackets physical superiority allows the potentially undermotivated team considerable margin for error. Georgia Tech 31-10

Albuquerque, New Mexico
Dec. 22, 4:30 p.m. ET
New Mexico Lobos versus Nevada Wolf Pack

It's not as obvious as a matchup like Texas Tech versus Virginia in the Gator Bowl, but the second installment of the New Mexico Bowl promises a classic battle of offense against defense. Nevada's unique Pistol offense kept firing this year despite the loss of longtime starters at all of the key skill positions. When quarterback Nick Graziano was lost for the season in October freshman Colin Kaepernick stepped in and threw for more than 2,000 yards, tossing 19 touchdowns against only three interceptions. Kaepernick is fifth in the country in passing efficiency, and he has the option of handing the ball to the nation's 20th leading rusher, Luke Lippincott. The Wolf Pack offense is putting up some gaudy numbers in the air and on the ground, but New Mexico's traditional calling card is defense, and the Lobos have once again fielded a very sturdy unit. New Mexico's ham 'n' egg offense is led by workhorse back Rodney Ferguson. Although there's not much flash to the Lobo attack, this team is good enough to move the chains consistently on a Nevada defense that's struggled to stop anyone for most of the year. In addition to the obvious benefit of a hometown crowd, New Mexico has a significant advantage in the kicking game, as the Lobos' stellar field goal and punt teams far outclass those of their WAC opponent. The Lobos are 0-4 in bowl games during current head coach Rocky Long's tenure, including a New Mexico Bowl setback to WAC member San Jose State last year. Atonement, however, is one of the biggest motivators in college sports. This New Mexico team is determined to redeem itself for its home-field failure last season, and it has the goods to do just that. New Mexico 37-24

Dec. 14 update: Early reports from New Mexico practices are confirming my belief that this team really wants this game. To a man, the players are indicating that they're taking practice much more seriously than in years past. The school hasn't won a bowl game in 46 years, and the determination to break that streak is downright palpable. Also, Long has indicated that every single one of the team's practices will be spent on Nevada preparation, with none used to assess younger players. This is highly unusual, and I am growing increasingly comfortable with this pick. New Mexico 41-24

Dec. 19 update: The all-Mountain West first team offense features six New Mexico players. So why do the Lobos rank only 84th nationally in total offense? The answer is inconsistent quarterback play. Sophomore starter Donovan Porterie has an excellent supporting cast, but has made some big mistakes this year. Now the pressure is really on Porterie, because tailback Rodney Ferguson -- one of those all-conference first teamers -- is now academically ineligible. That's a big, big blow, especially since Ferguson's backup is both inexperienced and much smaller. The New Mexico offensive line is huge, and coupled with Ferguson's physical downhill style would have provided the Lobos with a hammer to pound on the smaller Nevada defense all game. Now five-foot-seven scatback Paul Baker is the starter, and he just can't punish defenses the way Ferguson does. Nevada will still struggle to stop the run, and the Pack corners don't match up well with New Mexico's excellent receivers, both of whom were first team all-conference selections. However, Porterie has to get these guys the ball, and Ferguson's absence means that the erratic signal-caller will be called on to win the game by making accurate downfield reads and throws, rather than simply manage the offense and feed the ball to Ferguson. Nevada's stop unit has improved against the run since a midseason switch from a 3-4 alignment to a 4-3 look. I love Nevada triggerman Colin Kaepernick, and the Pack will score on anybody, even an accomplished New Mexico defense. With Ferguson out the "visitor" has a much better shot here. I don't mean to spout only doom and gloom about this pick. It's true that New Mexico has been a terrible bowl team during coach Rocky Long's otherwise solid tenure. Home field and motivation count for a lot, however, and the Lobos are definitely taking this game seriously. Ferguson isn't even really a top talent. He is, however, the main cog in this offense, and his loss changes the entire New Mexico game plan. The Lobos still have more advantages and should still prevail, but Porterie's ability to get the ball to his receivers is now the key. The team will face more second-and 10 situations, the conversion rate on third-and-short will be lower and the Nevada defense will remain fresh deeper into the game. I still like the Lobos here, but the margin for error is much slimmer with their offensive MVP on the sidelines. New Mexico 38-31

Houston, Texas
Dec. 28, 8:00 p.m. ET
Houston Cougars versus Texas Christian Horned Frogs

This Lone Star affair offers an interesting matchup between two former Southwest conference foes. TCU has been a disappointment this year, but the Frogs finished strong, clinching the school's eighth bowl berth in the past nine years. Houston only finished 8-4, and an ugly 56-7 no-show at Tulsa with the division lead on the line kept the team from defending its Conference USA title. Otherwise the Cougars have been one of the nation's most impressive teams this year. Houston outgained every opponent but Tulsa, including Oregon and Alabama on the road, and did so by an average margin of 148 yards. The Cougars graduated last season's leading rusher and leading receiver, plus a four-year starting quarterback who is now in the NFL (Philadelphia's Kevin Kolb.) No problem, apparently. All the Cougars did this year was finish fourth in the land in total offense. Stopping this balanced attack is a big chore for any team, even one with TCU's defensive pedigree. The Horned Frogs are stout on defense as usual, but their offense is strictly ham 'n' egg material, and won't be able to keep pace in a shootout. Under normal circumstances, the only advantage the Frogs would have is their superior special teams. These circumstances, however, are not normal. Head coach and offensive coordinator Art Briles, the architect of all this plug-and-play offensive wizardry, has left for Baylor, taking most of the offensive staff with him. Oh, and the defensive coordinator is gone, too, so there's nobody left with play-calling experience on either side of the ball. Plus, Briles was 0-3 in bowls, so it's not like he bequeathed the master blueprint to any of the remaining assistants. The interim coach is the recruiting coordinator, who also coaches cornerbacks. Disaster looms. This TCU squad is a bit down from recent editions, but this is still a very well-coached team with a demonstrated emphasis on reaching and winning bowl games. Even in what has been a disappointing season, the disciplined Frogs will likely play well in this Lone Star affair between former Southwest Conference rivals. The now-rudderless Cougars already ranked in the nation's bottom dozen in both penalties and turnovers lost and are in big trouble here against what will assuredly be a better-prepared TCU team. TCU 34-21

Dec. 14 update: Oklahoma co-offensive coordinator Kevin Sumlin was named head coach at the University of Houston Friday. Interim coach Chris Thurmond has praised the team's efforts in early practices. Tune in for my next update on Dec. 19 to find out whether Sumlin will play a role in bowl preparations. TCU backers will be disappointed to hear reports of enthusiastic practices, but the battle is still uphill for the Cougars. The team's biggest challenge will be play-calling, not motivation. TCU is a team with great defensive tradition, and the Frogs defenders seem to be motivated by the challenge of facing the only offense in NCAA history to produce a 300-yard receiver and a 200-yard rusher in the same game (Donnie Avery and Anthony Alridge versus Rice). TCU 34-21

Dec. 19 update: The Cougars -- and interim coach Chris Thurmond -- have thus far had more productive preparations for the bowl than I expected. Sumlin will not have a hand in coaching or preparing the team for the game. Lack of play-calling experience will still be a brutal disadvantage on gameday, but at least the team hasn't allowed itself to become demoralized by the loss of Briles. Frogs coach Gary Patterson has a solid bowl pedigree, and TCU is certainly a program that emphasizes postseason victories. The Cougars boast one of the nation's top offenses, and they're not in any danger of being shut down completely, even without the entire playbook. This game is moving down the confidence charts a bit, due mostly to a lack of useful new information about TCU. The Frogs are still the choice, though. TCU should be able to keep the chains moving against an average Houston run defense, keeping the Cougars playmakers on the sidelines for much of the game. The Frogs boast a big all-around advantage in the kicking game and are the far less penalized team. The already-strong TCU pass rush improved dramatically with the return of former all-Mountain West first teamer Tommy Blake. The Cougars have had some issues in pass protection, and are turnover prone. That spells trouble against an athletic and aggressive TCU front. Houston will probably get on the board several times, mixing a couple of impressive scoring drives with a few big plays. Inconsistency will be the problem, though as the Cougars' possessions will be limited by TCU's ball-control act. Too many of those Houston possessions will be squandered by turnovers or communication errors. That won't suffice to outscore a TCU offense that's not flashy but should be able to move the ball consistently. Even without injured tailback Aaron Brown the Frogs are deep enough to find success running between the tackles, and when TCU can do that, it's a tough team to beat. TCU 34-24

Orlando, Florida
Dec. 28, 5:00 p.m. ET
Michigan State Spartans versus Boston College Eagles

The nation's top-ranked run defense has enabled Boston College to dominate offensively-challenged opponents this year, but the Eagles will get a real test from a balanced Michigan State attack that leads the Big Ten in scoring. Michigan State boasts one of the nation's best backfield tandems with speedy Javon Ringer and bruising Jehuu Caulcrick. Boston College foes must throw to be successful, and the Spartans have weapons in the passing game as well. The Spartans also play solid defense, but while their outstanding pass rush will help keep B.C. triggerman Matt Ryan in check, it won't be enough to shut the Eagles down. Look for scoring from both teams in what looks to be a pretty evenly matched pairing. Boston College has three more wins than its Big Ten opponent, but hasn't really played that much better. Ryan, however, does give the Eagles an edge. The ACC Player of the Year draws constant comparisons to the Patriots' Tom Brady, and his skill in eluding the pass rush could be a big factor in this game. The main problem for Boston College backers here is the issue of the teams' relative contentedness with their bowl assignments. Michigan State was happy to be headed to the lowly Motor City Bowl even before Illinois' inclusion in the BCS promoted the Spartans to sunny Orlando. Boston College, once ranked second in the country, occupied the ACC driver's seat for virtually the entire season. The rematch loss to Virginia Tech in the ACC title game dropped the Eagles several notches in the bowl pecking order. Yes, Boston College has won seven straight bowls, but all were under the tutelage of former coach Tom O'Brien. New boss Jeff Jagodzinski has been impressive in his first season, but he's a bowl rookie. It's hard to see the Eagles being nearly as enthusiastic about this game as Michigan State, so the underdog Spartans are the slight choice. Michigan State 31-27

Dec. 14 update: Regular readers know I love Mark Dantonio and what's he's done with this Michigan State team. I'm not surprised at what I've learned during the past two weeks. I love the Spartans' attitude toward the bowl so far. This team's primary mission is to gain respect, and the players understand that the journey is by no means complete. In Beantown, disappointment reigns. The Eagles not only missed the BCS, but fell past the Chick-fil-A to the Champs Sports Bowl. Such is the fate of teams whose fans don't travel well. ACC schools consider the Chick-fil-A a far better destination than the Champs Sports, although that feeling almost exclusively reflects praise of the former Peach Bowl rather than any ill will toward the Orlando game. How did the Eagles feel about losing to Virginia Tech? Let's hear from Jo-Lonn Dunbar, considered the leader of the nation's top-ranked run defense. "It's hard to put this one into words. We wanted to go to the Orange Bowl as bad as wanted the ACC title. It's a setback in terms of this program, our team and our personal goals," Dunbar told the Associated Press after the game. The determined Spartans continue to climb my board. Michigan State 34-24

Dec. 19 update: The more I study this game, the more I notice how the Eagles' running game disappeared down the stretch. Boston College couldn't manage even 80 yards per game in its final three contests. Matt Ryan is the best player on the field, but if the team can't get the ground attack going it could be a long day for a one-dimensional Eagles squad against a Michigan State pass rush that's as strong as Virginia Tech's. The Spartans' rush defense is merely average, and it's crucial for B.C. to achieve balance by getting production out of running back Andre Callender. On paper, this is a very close matchup. I love the way Michigan State is preparing for this game. Boston College is understandably underwhelmed by dropping to yet another third-tier bowl game. The 2007 Eagles have displayed great character all season, however, and while their situation is a textbook flat spot, I'm not convinced that this team will play that poorly. The team that achieves the greatest balance on offense will probably win. In B.C.'s case, that means running the ball effectively to complement Ryan so the defense can't just come after him on every snap. For Michigan State, it's the reverse. Boston College boasts the nation's best run defense, so the Spartans need triggerman Brian Hoyer to throw well enough to provide openings for Ringer and Caulcrick. Again, I don't expect Boston College to be a total no-show emotionally, but the Spartans will certainly be the more motivated team. Boston College may be a notch better, but not by enough to overcome even a small mental disadvantage. Michigan State 34-24

Shreveport, Louisiana
Dec. 30, 8:00 p.m. ET
Colorado Buffaloes versus Alabama Crimson Tide

In many ways Alabama matches up well in this game. The Tide has struggled with good defensive teams, which Colorado is not, and has beaten its offensive-oriented foes. Colorado, meanwhile, has struggled against teams with prolific passing offenses, and while Alabama's pass protection and quarterback play have been inconsistent, the Tide certainly has the requisite weapons at receiver, particularly D.J. Hall, the team's offensive star. Offensively, these two squads have mirrored each other all year. The Buffaloes average 226 yards passing and 151 yards rushing per game, with 3.9 yards per carry and 6.2 yards per pass attempt. Bama averages 222 passing and 151 rushing, with 4.0 yards per carry and 6.1 yards per attempt. Alabama has fielded the superior defense, however, especially against the pass. Both teams will have to throw to be successful moving the chains, and given that neither side will be able to get to the opposing quarterback, a high-scoring game is in the offing. That would seem to favor Alabama, but the Tide can't capitalize if the players aren't interested in competing. Alabama was playing well at midseason and was one play away from an SEC championship game berth. The defense couldn't quite hold on against LSU, and the team went in the tank for the rest of the year. If Alabama decides to make this game about atonement for the poor play down the stretch or last year's Independence Bowl loss, the team has the horses to justify its status as the favorite. However, nothing this coaching staff has done inspires confidence that it can prepare or motivate this team, and around campus there's no enthusiasm for anything other than the school's stellar recruiting class. Colorado coach Dan Hawkins, by contrast, is a master motivator. This is simply a bigger game for the Buffs, who perceive themselves as a team on the rise and view this game as a litmus test of progress against a big-time football school. Check the updates for signs of life from the more talented Bama squad, but for now the Buffs are the slight choice to build an early lead and hang on. Colorado 34-31

Dec. 14 update: There is zero buzz about this game in Tuscaloosa. The staff and fans have been focused exclusively on recruiting, and the team won't even resume practice until Dec. 16th. Colorado has been emphasizing recruiting as well, but has held a week's worth of practices already. The Buffaloes are more excited about this game than the Tide, but for Colorado simply getting to the bowl was the primary achievement. Colorado is not what I'd call a determined team right now, but they are at least enthusiastic. The Boulder contingent is certainly happier about having to spend another few weeks with each other. The Tide needs coaching badly right now, but the coach is absent. That's a criticism of Saban in terms of his failure to give this team the best possible chance to win this particular game, but in the big picture his decision to virtually ignore the bowl until the final two weeks is probably a wise one. Alabama needs improvement in 2008 and beyond more than it needs to avenge last year's Independence Bowl loss. For Alabama to play well, this bowl needs to become a statement game. Someone (the coach?) needs to make this game about something. It doesn't look like that's going to happen, so expect another lackluster performance. Colorado 34-24

Dec. 19 update: Like most big-time programs, Colorado has its coaches spending a lot of time on recruiting this time of year. Of course the same is true at Alabama. I mentioned that the game was generating no excitement around Tuscaloosa, and that this bowl was clearly a bigger carrot for the Buffaloes than for the Tide. That's still true. Apparently it's so important that players have been organizing seven-on-seven drills to stay in shape between scheduled practices. Hawkins is nearly as recruiting-focused as Saban right now, but the attitude of the players and fans is quite different from the vibe at Alabama. I still can't see the Tide playing well, and while Alabama is the more talented team, it's not so talented that a lackluster effort will be good enough to produce a bowl win. Colorado 34-24

Honolulu, Hawaii
Dec. 23, 8:00 p.m. ET
Boise State Broncos versus East Carolina Pirates

The Boise State players were given the option of playing in Hawaii for the second time in 30 days or playing at home in the Humanitarian Bowl for the third time in six years. The Broncos' players disappointed their fans by opting for the warmer climes of the islands, and this time around there's a sense that it won't be just a business trip. The players view this as their chance to enjoy Hawaii, and coach Chris Petersen has indicated that he'll allow his team a lot of slack during their first several days in Honolulu. That could be bad news for a team that otherwise is a rightfully heavy favorite. The 10-2 Broncos turned in another impressive campaign in 2007 despite losing a three-year signal-caller and half the team's starters. Peterson's balanced attack should score in bunches on a 98th-ranked East Carolina defense. The Pirates can put up some points of their own, especially behind the running of Chris Johnson, who leads the nation in all-purpose yards per game. However, the Broncos' defense is capable of enough stops to ensure that the offense can put this one away. A huge edge in special teams and a partisan WAC crowd are also factors working in Boise State's favor. The lone issues for Boise backers are an injury to an offensive lineman who's started 50 consecutive games and the fact that the trip is obviously of greater importance to the players than the opportunity to win a game. However, the Pirates are just as likely to be distracted by the wonders of the 50th state, so the call is for the WAC runner-up to achieve redemption for the Aloha Stadium loss to Hawaii. Boise State 45-31

Dec. 14 update: There is some trouble brewing for Boise State. Exams have had to be rescheduled to accommodate the logistics of the pre-Christmas trip to Hawaii, and the situation looks like it will have an adverse effect on preparation. There's even a chance that some players' schedules are too crowded to finish exams before departure day, which would result in an athletic department representative proctoring exams in Honolulu. One thing is certain: players, coaches, professors and administrators aren't thrilled with the upcoming calendar of events. Also, the Pirates have shown somewhat impressive focus on winning the bowl thus far. That's quite common for a team making its second bowl appearance in a particular coach's tenure after losing its first. It's quite uncommon for a team headed to Hawaii for the first time. Boise is slipping a bit for me for now; check back on Dec. 19 for more. Boise State 41-31

Dec. 19 update: Boise State wideout Jeremy Childs is the team's leading receiver. He's a school record holder and a first team all-WAC selection. He's also suspended for the bowl game. The Broncos are really starting to look thin at receiver and on the offensive line. Half the team seems to be trying to learn to surf for the first time, but even assuming that no one drowns at these impromptu X-games, the Broncs have mounting personnel issues. East Carolina seems to regard this as a measuring-stick game, an opportunity to face a program that has achieved everything that the Pirates hope to accomplish someday. I like the Pirates' attitude and am increasingly uncomfortable with placing Boise State high in my rankings. The Broncos still match up well, and it's not time to call for the upset. East Carolina plays very little defense of any kind, and the Pirates were very fortunate in some of their victories. On the balance ECU is not a particularly impressive team. There are definite red flags, however, and the Broncos are not a very safe pick despite their status as one of the heaviest favorites of the bowl season. Boise State 37-31

Miami, Florida
January 3, 8:00 p.m. ET
Kansas Jayhawks versus Virginia Tech Hokies

Like Hawaii, Kansas has detractors who claim the team got rich on a soft schedule. Like Hawaii, Kansas hasn't just won those games, it's been dominant. True, there was no Texas or Oklahoma, but there were five bowl teams on the Jayhawks' schedule, and the team ranks in the top 14 in every major statistical category save rushing offense (27th). This is a unified team that excels at all the things that live at the bottom of the boxscore. The Jayhawks are the least-penalized team in the nation and commit the third-fewest turnovers. The offense is balanced and explosive, with a wide variety of weapons at quarterback Todd Reesing's disposal. The Hawks have played shutdown run defense and the secondary has been solid as well. The Virginia Tech defense is even better, a top-five unit. The offense, however, is its usual ham 'n' egg self. This can be said of most Virginia Tech games against decent opposition, but it's hard not to wonder how the Hokies are going to score. The correct answer is usually that they'll do it with the defense and special teams, but Kansas profiles as a team whose vulnerability to getting Beamered is minimal. These look like evenly-matched teams, so the one that plays closest to its maximum potential is the likely winner.

To understand why that won't be Virginia Tech, it's important to know the story of this team. The offensive line was the problem earlier in the season, and that spelled big trouble in the blowout at LSU. The Hokies then dispatched three weaker opponents-- though not without some difficulty -- before Beamering Clemson with three return touchdowns. Then came a win over Duke, a bye week, and the chance to shine on a national stage in a big game against second-ranked Boston College. Tech dominated the game until Eagles quarterback Matt Ryan ripped the Hokies' hearts out with two touchdowns in the final two minutes of play. Most teams would have folded the tent after such a gut-wrenching defeat, at least for the following week. The well-coached and character-rich Hokies, however, circled the wagons and devoted the rest of the season to one mission. Everything the team did became centered on the quest to get to the ACC title game and exact revenge on Boston College. Stoked by this desire, Tech roared through its next four opponents. The two-quarterback system worked well during this period -- in part due to a widespread unselfish focus on the team's mission -- and the offense was more productive, though still pedestrian by national standards. Virginia Tech was actually outgained by its seven opponents before the loss to Boston College, a group that included Duke, William and Mary and Ohio. The Hokies crushed the four opponents between meetings with Boston College, outyarding them by a combined 673 yards. This amazing turnaround is even more pronounced considering that the latter group consisted of Georgia Tech, Florida State, Miami and Virginia. Fueled by an intense desire to earn another shot at the Eagles, the Hokies became a completely different team. Now? Mission accomplished. Loss avenged. Boston College defeated. Conference championship earned. Virginia Tech will not play at the same level in the Orange Bowl. There appears to be just as much at stake, but the reality is that this team has already achieved what it wanted most. That's not to say that the Hokies don't want to win this game, or that they're just happy to be there, but simply that their best fuel was burned during what became an absolute crusade to beat Boston College for the ACC title. It could be argued that Kansas is vulnerable to the "just happy to be there" blues, but unfortunately for the Hokies no one will shut up about how the Jayhawks don't deserve to be in Miami. Count on a "something-to-prove" effort from Kansas that Tech simply can't match. Kansas 30-20

Dec. 14 update: Like BYU, Virginia Tech is surrounded by the aura of a team that's already completed a successful season. Don't misunderstand; I don't expect a well-coached team with a reputation for pride and grit to play poorly. Such teams, including Virginia Tech, rarely do. I remain convinced, however, that this team does not bear the marks of a squad about to deliver a performance above its average level. The Hokies will need a better-than-average showing to best a Kansas squad that's better than many think. Kansas 30-20

Dec. 19 update: I touched on the challenging nature of contests like ESPN's Bowl Mania earlier. Making picks two to three weeks in advance of a game is difficult because there's so little information available about the later games. Kansas is a perfect example. The Jayhawks' starters have basically not even begun practicing for the Orange Bowl. On the surface, the team has been focused on exams, recruiting and developing younger players. The coaches, of course, are up late at night trying to figure out how to avoid getting Beamered. The players, however, have done very little besides rest and concentrate on academics. This is standard procedure for BCS-conference football teams, especially those in January bowl games. Bigger programs spend more time recruiting because their pool of recruits is scattered across a wider portion of the country. Teams like Kansas can have at least 10 practices after exams. That's really plenty, so the coaches don't install the gameplan until farther along in the process. Virginia Tech is in the same boat. There's virtually no new useful information coming from these types of programs right now unless it's about academic suspensions, injuries or coaching changes. Hokies defensive coordinator Bud Foster has rejected South Carolina's overtures. It remains to be seen whether Foster will emerge as a serious candidate for the West Virginia job, but for now he appears to be staying. Both of these teams seem to be on track for this game, but nothing has emerged to cause a change in my earlier assessment. Kansas 30-20

New Orleans, Louisiana
January 1, 8:30 p.m. ET
Georgia Bulldogs versus Hawaii Warriors

Hawaii's admittance into the BCS is a slap in the face to Fresno State, Southern Miss and other non-BCS schools who try to live the BCS dream by scheduling via the "Anyone, anywhere, anytime" philosophy. It's an unfortunate fact that based on the system in place, those schools are indeed going about it the wrong way. That said, Hawaii is an awfully good football team and has every bit the profile of a deserving BCS selection. The schedule may be light, but there is nothing fluky about the record. The Warriors have dominated the opposition, outgaining every opponent and doing so by an astonishing margin of 180 yards per game, tops in the NCAA. Think the Warriors can't do the little things that help teams win when they don't dominate the yardage? Their plus-50 yardage margin against New Mexico State was the smallest of the year, yet produced a 50-13 score, their largest margin of victory over a 1-A team. Hawaii's defensive numbers are very solid, and the WAC isn't known for bad offenses. The Warriors' aggressive front is fifth in the NCAA in tackles for loss and ninth in sacks. Georgia has a relatively balanced play-action offense that's very productive, though not exactly explosive. The Bulldogs also have once-in-a-lifetime recruit Knowshon Moreno, who is a more integral part of the team's success than most non-SEC fans realize. The Bulldogs' defense is statistically similar to Hawaii's, disregarding strength of schedule. It's a middle-of-the-pack SEC defense, very solid -- especially against the run -- but not quite dominant. The front generates consistent pressure on the quarterback, a plus against a Hawaii line that's had some difficulty protecting Brennan. When teams play such disparate schedules, it becomes harder to handicap their strengths through an analysis of their production. Taking in the big picture of a team's overall resume becomes more important. Twelve-and-oh should get your attention. So should the mitigating factors. It's hard to play your A-game (or your starters) when you're already ahead by four touchdowns. If Colt Brennan had played every down this year, or if the team had kept a normal energy level after building big leads, what would the scores be like? If the stats said that Hawaii posted 700 yards per game instead of 529, would Georgia backers feel differently? The fact that the Warriors needed big comebacks to get past Louisiana Tech, San Jose State, Nevada and Washington gives pause, but it's also a measure of the level of play to which the team is capable of cranking it up when it wants it the most. And Hawaii certainly wants this one. Teams that have the opportunity to complete an undefeated season do not show up "just happy to be there," no matter how exotic the locale or how new the experience. Nor does history support anything other than a Herculean effort from the Warriors. Fellow BCS-busters Utah in 2004 and Boise State in 2006 played their best games of the year; Hawaii will do the same. It's possible but doubtful that Georgia will show lingering effects from the disappointment of being passed over for the national title game. Based on the assumption that they do not -- and therefore play well -- the Bulldogs probably win, but certainly not comfortably. Georgia 31-28

Dec. 14 update: There's honestly not a single word of the above that I would amend at this point, so I won't waste further space here until the update of Dec. 19, by which time both teams will have held far more practices and interviews. Check back then. Georgia 31-28

Dec. 19 update: Any bowl team is likely to play better when the players are happy to have earned an invitation to that bowl. It's simple but true: teams that want to be there usually win, and teams that don't really care usually lose. That axiom is of limited use, however, because most matchups pit two teams that are relatively happy with their bowl destinations. Sometimes, however, there's even more at stake. Teams facing a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity are even stronger. Hawaii, like previous BCS busters Utah and Boise State, certainly fits this model. Not surprisingly, the Warriors appear one hundred percent focused on the game. Practices have been excellent and players and fans alike are in an absolute frenzy about this game. Georgia, meanwhile, is following a more traditional pattern: lots of recruiting, lots of younger players getting repetitions in practice. The Bulldogs aren't ignoring the game, though. Mark Richt has reined in his coordinators on the recruiting trail so they can spend more time game planning. The players are slowly but surely losing the last vestiges of disappointment about not being selected for the BCS title game. Again, this is a very difficult game to analyze from a fundamental standpoint because of the disparity in schedule strength. I probably feel like Hawaii's chances are a little better than I thought they were a week ago, but in general nothing has changed for me here. The Sugar should be a great game and a virtual tossup. The Dawgs are still the choice by a nose. Georgia 31-28

Dallas, Texas
January 1, 11:30 a.m. ET
Missouri Tigers versus Arkansas Razorbacks

Heisman finalists Chase Daniel and Darren McFadden will lead equally productive but radically different offenses in what should be a terrific matchup of impressive teams. Houston Nutt has departed for Mississippi, and the Razorbacks will be led by defensive coordinator Reggie Herring. The Hogs have already courted Tommy Tuberville, Jim Grobe, Butch Davis, Tommy Bowden and Jimbo Fisher. Each received a raise to remain at his current school. The loss of Nutt is a negative, and the coaching turmoil is a big distraction. From an X's and O's standpoint, however, the Razorbacks' offensive gameplan -- give the ball to No. 5 -- is not so complicated that Herring will be lost at sea. Missouri's run defense has been solid all year, and that's a big advantage for the Tigers. They won't stop McFadden -- the Hogs just ran for 385 yards against LSU -- but they'll slow him more than several Arkansas opponents have. The Tigers have a solid back of their own in Tony Temple, and the team has rushed for 164 yards per game this year. The ability to complement Daniel's passing with some balance on the ground should give the Tigers an edge over a one-dimensional Arkansas team. However, McFadden and his backfield mates Felix Jones and Peyton Hillis have faced a stacked line of scrimmage all year, and for the most part it hasn't seemed to matter. It's worth noting that Jones and Hillis ran for 174 yards against LSU on only 20 carries! This is indeed a serious offense, one-dimensional or not. Wideout Marcus Monk's midseason return from injury finally gave the Hogs at least one downfield threat to complement the rushing onslaught. As for the Razorback defense, the run defense has been solid, and the secondary, despite a few key meltdowns, managed to finish fifth in the nation in pass efficiency defense and 36th in passing yards allowed. No team besides Oklahoma has even had Missouri in trouble in a game this year, and the Tigers look like the better squad overall. Missouri has a wider array of weapons, a run defense that's good enough not to get embarrassed and the far superior special teams. Nutt's absence is not a plus, and the Hogs rely too heavily on McFadden, who has left his share of games with injuries. The difference is fairly slight, though, and the real key to the outcome will be the mindset of the Missouri team. It's possible that the team's exclusion from the BCS after advancing to the cusp of national title contention is too much to overcome psychologically. Check back for updates on the team's mental state, but right now it seems more likely that the disappointment will abate and that the Tigers will play with a chip on their shoulder, intent on proving they belonged in the BCS all along. Missouri 38-28

Dec. 14 update: Houston Nutt's sudden defection to Oxford was bad enough. Enter the Bobby Petrino soap opera. Arkansas is a train wreck right now. I feel more than ever that this game will be determined by whether Missouri is flat and uninspired due to the disappointment of the BCS snub or whether the Tigers come to Dallas bent on making a statement. The team is admittedly disappointed, but like Georgia and Arizona State, the Tigers are in a good position to get over it. The factor that gives this team the best chance is its youth. Daniel is a junior (and a Texas native) and it's clear that he bounced back mentally very quickly. Some of the seniors' interviews have been a little more depressing. I still like the chances of a rebound, but want to see how this team begins next week before overcommiting. I also think Nutt's impact on the Razorbacks' play-calling will really be missed. Missouri 38-24

Dec. 19 update: I'm going to stand by my earlier take on this game. Even with McFadden, Arkansas does not have the horses to hang with Missouri. Arkansas will win if the Tigers are still pouting, but if Missouri shows up with something to prove it will be over by halftime. Unfortunately, as I pointed out in the Orange Bowl update, teams in this situation have barely begun preparing when we submit our contest picks. I have therefore not yet been able to get a solid grasp on the mentality of this Missouri team. The Tigers seem a little re-energized after the time off, but while that's a good sign it won't carry much weight until it translates into focus on the practice field and in the film room. It does appear that star tight end Chase Coffman -- a huge part of the Missouri offense who has missed the last six quarters with an ankle injury -- will be ready to go by kickoff. Star Arkansas wideout Marcus Monk is also taking it easy during bowl workouts but is likewise expected to be back at full strength for the game. The Razorbacks seem to be adjusting well to a difficult coaching situation and I like the players' attitude toward preparations. Arkansas is disadvantaged, but I expect the Hogs to play well. Whether that will be enough to win will depend on whether Missouri shows up at full speed. The Tigers will probably be fine, so in the absence of any new information I will leave it Missouri 38-24

El Paso, Texas
Dec. 31, 2:00 p.m. ET
South Florida Bulls versus Oregon Ducks

The last three games of Oregon's season removed all doubt regarding Dennis Dixon's importance to the team. Granted, some of the disaster that was the three-game skid can be attributed to psychological damage, which is to say that the team is capable of better, even without Dixon. Still, the loss of the former Heisman frontrunner cannot be understated, even were the Ducks to recover from their understandable loss of motivation and enthusiasm. The scant post-injury data set for this team renders quantifying Dixon's value difficult, and makes this a tough game to call. The statistics don't tell the whole tale, but by the numbers the offense looks to be missing about 150 yards per game, good for approximately 10 points. The defense has maintained its production, however, and has been strong against the run for most of the year. South Florida's issues have come against teams with active defensive fronts that stuff the run and create chaos in the backfield. Oregon certainly fits that profile, as the Ducks are tops in the nation in tackles for loss and 14th in sacks. The Bulls rank only 62nd in sacks allowed, an unacceptable number for a team with a quarterback as mobile as Matt Grothe. The Ducks have the better kicking and punting units, and dynamic return man Jonathan Stewart could give South Florida's poor kickoff coverage teams big problems. Better field position for the Ducks' less experienced quarterbacks will help prevent big-time mistakes against an aggressive USF defense. Oregon showed it wasn't ready to cash in the season when it woke up in the middle of the Civil War, a game Oregon State once led 21-7. It is possible that the heartbreak of the overtime loss to the Beavers will be the final nail in the coffin and the team won't recover from the latest setback in time for the bowl. Don't write the Ducks off here, though. This squad has good senior leadership, plus the Sun Bowl bid was better than the team expected and the opportunity to play a strong opponent could engender a "something-to-prove" effort. In contrast to Oregon, the Bulls are a team with positive momentum. They eventually overcame the bursting of their bubble and finished the year on a three-game winning streak while showing a newfound commitment to the running game. As a result, USF earned the most prestigious bowl berth of the three 9-3 Big East teams. However, by rallying to a successful season after having larger dreams shattered, South Florida may have already proven what it had to prove. Don't be surprised if the Bulls are a little overconfident and more content with having stormed back to earn a berth in the Sun than they are intent on winning it. South Florida is a better team than a Dixon-less Oregon, but the difference is not vast. The team that wants this game the most will win. Check the updates as bowl practices uncover further evidence on this clash of former No. 2s, but right now the lean is to the Ducks. Oregon 24-21

Dec. 14 update: There's really not too much to add here yet. There's definitely some buzz around Tampa about the chance to play a Pac-10 team, so that's a positive. It's still unclear how seriously the Bulls are going to take this game, though. Mike Bellotti has yet to announce a starting quarterback, but has commented on star running back Jonathan Stewart. "We're going to saddle him up and ride him home," Bellotti said, as reported in the El Paso Times. Everything that I mentioned earlier still applies, and I still lean to the underdog. The confidence on this one has declined a bit, if that was even possible. Oregon 24-21

Dec. 19 update: Oregon has some hidden advantages as detailed above, and the Ducks will come into this game with the right frame of mind, all things considered. I am changing sides here, however. In my last update I questioned whether South Florida would really devote themselves to winning this game. I'm still not sure that they're a candidate to play like a team on a mission, but the Bulls seem genuinely humbled by their meteoric rise and subsequent fall from the national spotlight. I like the team's attitude and approach, even if there haven't been enough practices held to really substantiate my feelings yet. It's always a good sign when a team's best player appears highly motivated for a particular game, and Bulls pass rushing phenom George Selvie seems fired up to get a crack at a real live Pac-10 offense. Selvie and his mates could make things really uncomfortable for the Oregon quarterbacks. Meanwhile, USF has a proven signal-caller in Grothe. The disparity at the quarterback position combined with a better defense and a positive attitude make the favored Bulls my slight choice at the deadline. South Florida 24-21

Mobile, Alabama
January 6, 8:00 p.m. ET
Tulsa Golden Hurricane versus Bowling Green Falcons

Tulsa is the worst defensive team in a bowl this year. That's not a problem, because the Golden Hurricane leads the nation in total offense. The game will be a matchup of accomplished offensive coordinators and great quarterbacks. Deposed Arkansas assistant Gus Malzahn calls plays at Tulsa for senior Paul Smith, who ranks third in the NCAA in total offense. Smith's 4,753 yards and 42 touchdowns are downright gaudy, and his 60 percent completion rate is especially impressive because he averages almost 10 yards per attempt. Unlike Texas Tech's Graham Harrell or Hawaii's Colt Brennan -- the two total offense leaders -- Smith has to share the stage with a running game that piles up 168 yards per game. Tulsa is basically unstoppable. Oklahoma and Central Florida (twice) are the only teams that have even slowed this juggernaut, and the Hurricane posted at least 379 yards and 21 points even in those losses. There's no sense in wasting much ink on the Tulsa defense; it's abysmal. Bowling Green is very similar, with an offense that's not quite as potent and a defense that's, um, less bad. Urban Meyer protégé Gregg Brandon coaches the Falcons, who feature sophomore sensation Tyler Sheehan under center. Bowling Green was mostly a passing team all year, but converted quarterback Anthony Turner earned the starting tailback nod after a loss to Ohio. The Falcons responded with four straight wins to close the season as their rushing production soared. The Bowling Green offense isn't quite in Tulsa's class, but as far as the Hurricane defense is concerned, the Falcons are unstoppable as well. Expect well over a thousand yards and the highest point total of the bowl season. Tulsa had a shot at the Conference USA title, but shouldn't be dissatisfied by the league's second best bowl berth. Bowling Green closed the season strong to get here and should be delighted with their invitation. It's appointment television for fans of offense. Tulsa 51-47

Dec. 14 update: This is the third bowl, along with the Sugar and Holiday, about which there is nothing worth using space on. All of the above still applies. The offenses will have their way, and it looks like one of those 'last team with the ball wins" kind of games. It's impossible to call confidently for now; hopefully I'll uncover something useful before the final update on Dec. 19. Tulsa 51-47

Dec. 19 update: If somebody can tell me which team will have the ball last I might be willing to make a more confident prediction in the outcome of this barnburner. It truly could be one of those games, and it's nearly impossible to make a solid prediction. Bowling Green has more reason to be excited about this particular bowl berth -- always an advantage worth considering -- but the Falcons will have had an awfully long layoff before this game and Gregg Brandon has given his players a lot of time off from football so far. Bowling Green has not been conducting very physical practices. This is generally worse for young teams than veteran ones, and the Falcons qualify as a young team. With so much time before kickoff, Brandon can afford to go easy on his players, but they might return to him after the holidays with a lot of rust and a little extra weight. Tulsa is a more mature team with more postseason experience. Quarterback Paul Smith has put up huge numbers in the Golden Hurricane's system, but Smith's best quality is generally considered to be his maturity, leadership and decision-making intangibles. Bowling Green doesn't have that type of leader to keep teammates focused -- in the weeks preceding the game as well as during the game -- and I'll call for Smith to be the difference-maker in a tight ballgame controlled by the offenses. Tulsa 51-47

Charlotte, North Carolina
Dec. 29, 1:00 p.m. ET
Wake Forest Demon Deacons versus Connecticut Huskies

Both of these schools landed the bowl berth they wanted at the end of the season, and this matchup should produce a competitive chess match of a game between two very similar teams. Both are very well-coached teams with rock-solid defenses, sound special teams and pedestrian offenses that struggle to throw the ball effectively. Both teams are very efficient, putting up far more points than their meager yardage differentials would suggest. Connecticut won nine games, but was outgained by every team except Duke, Akron, Temple, Maine and Syracuse. Wake was outgained in half its wins. Both Jim Grobe and Randy Edsall do a fantastic job with the areas of special teams, turnovers and penalties, giving their charges much-needed hidden yardage that allows these oft-undermanned squads to compete evenly with more talented teams. The teams are so similar that each lost to Virginia in Charlottesville by the score of 17-16! Neither team throws the ball effectively, so the battle at the line of scrimmage will be the key. The Deacons boast a slightly stronger defensive front, but the Huskies run the ball a little better. It's difficult to forecast a winner in what should be one of the bowl season's lowest-scoring contests. The Connecticut special teams have played very well this year, but Wake's advantages in that department could be the difference. Two-time Groza finalist Sam Swank is a big-time long-range weapon, and kick returner Kevin Marion -- the nation's fourth-best this year -- will test a Husky coverage unit that's struggled throughout the season. Wake is also the more battle-tested team in terms of bowl experience, and the players are doubtless inspired by Grobe's decision to reject Arkansas' overtures and return to Winston-Salem. The Deacs pull it out on a two-run double in the bottom of the eighth. Wake Forest 6-5

Dec. 14 update: This one is nearly impossible to predict. The team are practically identical, and the only information coming out of either camp for the past week is of the "oh no coach Grobedsall is leaving; oh thank goodness he's staying" variety. I still expect Grobe to wind up at Michigan, but maybe the coaching talk will die down for a while now that the Arkansas crisis has passed. I'll call for the distractions to produce a lapse for each team during the game, resulting in a higher final score. Otherwise, there's nothing to add until the final update on Dec. 19. Wake Forest 13-12

Dec. 19 update: This game has been near the bottom of my board all along, so it won't come as a huge surprise when I admit that I have little to add to the thoughts above. There's evidence to suggest that Jim Grobe was a major player in the Michigan search but was unwilling to leave Wake Forest prior to the bowl, which was unacceptable to the Wolverines. That's no news report, just my interpretation of facts and rumors together. Grobe appears to be staying, as does Randy Edsall, but not before the rumor mill dragged Edsall into the Michigan picture for a while. I really don't think that all the coaching hullabaloo favors either side here, but it could well be coaching that wins this matchup between very similar teams. Since I don't have a very solid conclusion about the outcome, I will compensate by offering a very solid piece of general advice: when in doubt do not pick against Jim Grobe. Wake Forest 9-6

Tampa, Florida
January 1, 11:00 a.m. ET
Wisconsin Badgers versus Tennessee Volunteers

One of only two non-BCS bowls featuring two top-20 teams, the Outback marks Wisconsin's fifth straight bowl game against SEC opposition. These teams are pretty evenly matched, especially on the offensive side of the ball, where the production is very similar. The Badgers run the ball most of the time, and a healthy P.J. Hill will provide a big boost. Tennessee prefers to throw, and the Vols lead the nation in fewest sacks allowed. Both teams have balance, however, and since neither defense is dominant, don't expect either squad to be turned one-dimensional in this game. Wisconsin's defense has been a shade better all year, especially against the run. Special teams production is also evenly matched. The Badgers were pleased to get the Outback bid over a Penn State team that defeated them 38-7. Tennessee likewise is happy to be playing on New Year's Day and not the Chick-fil-A Bowl on Dec. 31. This should be a great game between two solid entrants. The Big Ten underdog looks like the better team, but not by much. Tennessee's defense is not up to its usual standards, and that could be the difference. Wisconsin isn't quite as explosive as California, Florida or pre-collapse Alabama, all of whom routed the Vols, but the Badgers have a weapon for every situation and should move the ball with regularity. Tennessee will need a big game from its young receiving corps to prevail, though that's certainly a possibility. The Vols should do more damage on big plays, but the Badgers should be more successful at sustaining drives. Wisconsin 34-28

Dec. 14 update: The bad news for Wisconsin is that P.J. Hill is unlikely to play in the bowl. The good news is that the Badgers have two other very good backs. The presence of Zach Brown and Lance Smith at tailback means that tight end Travis Beckham is actually the team's biggest injury concern. Beckham has not been practicing full-speed but is expected to be ready for the game. The Badgers seem to be taking this game seriously, and it presents an opportunity to add a new SEC scalp to their belt. Practices have been closed to the media, but I expect this team to be very well prepared. It's harder to project Tennessee's performance right now. SEC fans are recruiting-obsessed, and there hasn't been much buzz around Knoxville about this game yet. Check back for more, but for now it's still a slight lean to the Badgers. Wisconsin 34-28

Dec. 19 update: The big news in this game is that Tennessee offensive coordinator David Cutcliffe has accepted the head coaching job at Duke. Like Bo Pelini at LSU, Cutcliffe will stay on to coach the bowl, but his divided attention is still a negative. Tennessee coach Philip Fulmer has never before had to conduct an extensive search to replace a coordinator, and there is also a possibility that two or three more offensive assistants will be leaving for other jobs soon. It doesn't appear that the coaching situation is distracting the players thus far, as the Vols seem on track to be ready for the game. Wisconsin is also preparing well. The news from Madison is dominated by word that P.J. Hill is now practicing at near full strength. Just last week coach Bret Bielema declared Hill doubtful for the bowl. The Badgers have lost a starting cornerback to injury as well, the third defensive starter felled by an ACL tear this year. Practices have been closed to the media as Bielema experiments with some position changes. My guess is that there are some creative plays getting drawn up as well. This should be a great game, and my slight lean to the Badgers remains unchanged. Wisconsin 34-28

Atlanta, Georgia
Dec. 31, 7:30 p.m. ET
Clemson Tigers versus Auburn Tigers

This is a very tough game to call. The defenses are carbon copies, solid against both run and pass. Clemson sports the moderately better offense, with better production in the passing game and superior playmakers in the running game. Auburn boasts a huge advantage in net punting, but otherwise the special teams are evenly matched. Clemson rarely turns the ball over and doesn't commit a lot of penalties. Auburn has played a slightly tougher schedule. Both squads profile as the type of team that's given the other trouble. Since both coaches have been in the same place for a while, there's a good historical picture of their bowl prowess, and Tommy Tuberville is the more accomplished postseason coach. Clemson is a little better from the standpoint of talent and production, but overall these are very evenly matched teams. Generally, the defenses should control the game. The winner will probably be the team that wants it the most, but even in this, these two appear evenly matched. Atlanta doesn't represent the pinnacle of achievement for either program, but this is a prestigious bowl that generally marks a successful season in a tough conference. With both coaches signing extensions after being rumored to be on the verge of accepting the Arkansas job, both teams should prepare well without distractions. Clemson 17-14

Dec. 14 update: Changing offensive coordinators less than three weeks out is probably not good for a team's bowl chances, especially when the new system is radically different from the old. Yet Auburn chose to do this, allowing Al Borges to "resign" and bringing in Troy's Tony Franklin before the bowl. Once the decision was made to move the team to the spread offense, the school acted decisively in order to maximize the practice time Franklin gets with the players. Even if all the players learn about the new scheme is the terminology, it gives them a leg up on spring ball. With Nick Saban and his staff dominating the Tigers on the recruiting trail, the pressure was on to make some long-term improvements. Now the Air Raid is returning to the SEC. Sort of, at least. Franklin's first college job was under Hal Mumme at Kentucky, but he's made a few changes to Mumme's original model along the way. Senior quarterback Brandon Cox is about to play his last game, and the offense will be built around athletic freshman Kodi Burns, a player similar to Troy's Omar Haugabook.

If all of this sounds like the Tigers are sacrificing the bowl at the altar of long-term priorities, it's because that is exactly what is happening. This won't diminish Auburn's motivation to play well or dampen the Tigers' enthusiasm, though. It's strictly an x's and o's blow, and it may not be a big one. The defense carries the load for this team. How much worse can the nation's 101st total offense get? The uncertainly also hurts Clemson. It's not as if Franklin is going to install his entire scheme before the bowl. Cox, the starter, is ill-suited to operate it anyway. Watching Troy film therefore has minimal value for Clemson. The exact identity of Auburn's offense is and will continue to be largely unknown until it is unveiled on New Year's Eve. Unfamiliarity with scheme breeds sacks and turnovers, but while the change at coordinator is a setback for Auburn's Chick-fil-A chances, it's a small one. There's also the chance that the defense will motivate itself with the challenge of carrying the team in a time of offensive transition. I like what I've seen from Clemson's preparations so far and this game moves up the board a bit, though only past some other tossups. Clemson 20-14

Dec. 19 update: The news from Clemson is that three fifth-year senior starters, including two linebackers, will miss the bowl due to academics. That leaves a defensive depth chart with no seniors in the two-deep! Of course, while Clemson is trying to replace linebackers, Auburn has been busy replacing a coordinator. The Tigers have practiced well in their pre-Christmas workouts, but the team is still feeling its way along as far as what new hire Tony Franklin will contribute to the bowl efforts. Auburn is certainly not about to install a new system in two weeks, and it's highly unlikely that Franklin will call plays in Atlanta. There will be some new wrinkles, however, and Auburn has a definite challenge on its hands as it prepares for a very good Clemson team while deciding how to reinvent itself. I'm pleased with Clemson's preparations as well, and this game still figures to be a closely contested defensive battle. Clemson 20-17

Las Vegas, Nevada
Dec. 22, 8:00 p.m. ET
BYU Cougars versus UCLA Bruins

Ousted UCLA coach Karl Dorrell opted not to coach this game, and capable defensive coordinator DeWayne Walker is the interim boss. The Bruins were up and down earlier in the year, but won only once after beating Cal at home on October 20. Injuries to the team's offensive skill players have been UCLA's undoing this season, and the layoff should be a big benefit. Regardless of how well the Bruins heal up, the offense will have trouble moving the ball against a stout BYU defense. UCLA sports a tough stop unit, too, but BYU's 15th-ranked offense will put some points on the board. The 10-2 Cougars finished the season with nine straight wins, including a miracle finish against rival Utah and an impressive road pummeling of San Diego State in a somewhat meaningless game that was postponed by the San Diego wildfires and finally played only after BYU had clinched the Mountain West title and Las Vegas Bowl berth. BYU outgained every opponent this year by an impressive 150-yard margin, including UCLA in the Bruins 27-17 September victory. The visiting Cougars out-yarded their Pac-10 foe by almost 200 yards in that affair, but were done in by three untimely turnovers. BYU was the better team then, and it's the better team now. Plus, UCLA has the added disadvantage of the coaching turmoil. The only advantages the Bruins have are their superior special teams units and the fact that the stakes aren't really that high for the favorite. Last year the Cougars went undefeated in Mountain West play, won 10 regular-season games and pounded a Pac-10 team in the Las Vegas Bowl. Sure, they'd like to avenge the earlier defeat to the Bruins, but it wasn't an especially stinging loss and other than that, there's really nothing new for this team to accomplish here. The favorite is the choice for now, but there are red flags. Keep an eye out for signs of "been there, done that" disinterest from the Cougars, as well as signals that the UCLA players may be motivated to help Walker earn the full-time job. BYU 28-17

Dec. 14 update: I really like the way the Bruins have been practicing so far. Walker is a qualified and legitimate candidate for the permanent head coaching job and it seems that his players are ready to give their best for him. BYU, meanwhile is really boxed in by the Mountain West's relationship with the Las Vegas Bowl. There's a little bit of a feeling that this team has already finished its season. I detect both overconfidence and disinterest here, and while those sentiments haven't reached alarming proportions, the Cougars are falling on my board. BYU 24-20

Dec. 19 update: Walker continues to impress in his handling of this UCLA squad, and for me this game has moved into the tossup realm. One of the things that makes this game so tricky is that the Bruins haven't really shown what they can do when fully healthy. Of course, the team has lost some guys for the year and therefore won't be completely healthy for the bowl, but the difference will be stark, especially on offense. It looks like the UCLA attack unit is poised for its best game since September, and the defense has always been rock-solid. I am seeing a markedly different attitude than the one UCLA took into last year's Emerald Bowl. If the Bruins play the way they are practicing they will win. I'm changing sides. UCLA 21-20

San Diego, California
Dec. 27, 8:00 p.m. ET
Texas Longhorns versus Arizona State Sun Devils

The Longhorns played their best football late in the season, winning five straight before a loss to Texas A&M derailed their hopes of becoming an at-large BCS entrant. Now it's yet another Holiday Bowl for Mack Brown, who in 24 seasons as a head coach has never led a team not quarterbacked by Vince Young to either a conference title or a berth in one of the four major bowl games. The Holiday Bowl is also a bit of a letdown for Arizona State, which blew two opportunities to seize control of the Pac-10 and earn a Rose Bowl berth. The Sun Devils still figured to get an at-large invitation to college football's Big Dance, but it was 13th-ranked Illinois rounding out the BCS field. Dennis Erickson's squad features a balanced offense, but throwing is the key skill against a run-stuffing Texas crew that's had trouble with pass defense this year. The Devils don't protect quarterback Rudy Carpenter very well, but the Texas pass rush isn't as fearsome as it's been in recent years. The ASU defense holds up well against the run, good news against an excellent back like the Longhorns' Jamaal Charles, but Texas triggerman Colt McCoy can throw it too, and he's got plenty of quality targets from which to choose. This figures to be an evenly matched, high-scoring affair, and the winner will be the team that regards the Holiday assignment as more opportunity than disappointment. Brown has indicated that he will use the bowl as an audition for next year's starting jobs. That would seem to de-emphasize winning the game, but the flip side is that the younger guys on the field could serve to ratchet up the effort level. This is a tough game to call right now. Arizona State 38-35

Dec. 14 update: This was a tough game to call originally, and nothing has changed. As with the Sugar Bowl, I wouldn't change a word right now and have nothing useful to add until there's more information to interpret. Arizona State 38-35

Dec. 19 update: Mack Brown is making this difficult. The Texas coach reiterated that he has no depth chart for the Holiday Bowl, insisting that all jobs are in open competition. Brown has really tinkered with his practices, in terms of structure as well as schedule, and while the players have responded with enthusiasm, it remains to be seen if Brown's tweakings will be as effective in terms of retention as they have been at generating energy. My suspicion is that Brown's unusual antics will prove a success. He's certainly gotten his players' attention, and it looks like they are responding. Practice has been energetic and competitive. If everybody learns their assignment a prepared and excited Texas team could make it a long night for the Sun Devils. Texas, however, won't solve its pass defense issues overnight. The Longhorns have been vulnerable to quality signal-callers all year, and ASU has the wherewithal to exploit that weakness. The Sun Devils' biggest issue on offense has been pass protection, but the Longhorns' pass rush hasn't generated enough pressure this year to cause much concern. I love what Brown is doing; a shakeup to recapture his players' attention was just what the team needed heading into another pre-New Year's Day bowl. However, I don't really detect any lingering resentment from Arizona State about being left out of the BCS. The Devils are pumped up to play a team like Texas as well. This should be a fantastic game that comes down to the wire, and I'll keep it Arizona State 38-35

Birmingham, Alabama
Dec. 22, 1:00 p.m. ET
Cincinnati Bearcats versus Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles

Jeff Bower's Southern Miss head coaching career will end in the same stadium in which it began. Since he debuted as interim coach 17 years ago in the final All-American Bowl at Birmingham's Legion Field, the Golden Eagles have won four Conference USA titles and posted 14 consecutive winning seasons. Bower is very popular with his players, and they will be fired up to win for their outgoing coach. The fact that Cincinnati is a Conference USA defector will provide the Eagles with additional motivation, and the team will approach this game very seriously. The Bearcats may be a tad disappointed at having been passed over for the Big East's more desirable bowl assignments despite wins over South Florida and Connecticut. Cincinnati is unquestionably the superior team, though, and the Bearcats match up well with Southern Miss. The Cats have a productive and balanced offense to go with their solid run defense, but have been the victim of poor pass defense this year. The run-first Eagles are not ideally equipped to exploit that weakness, and even a great back like Damion Fletcher will have difficulty moving the chains against the Cincinnati front. Eagles signal-caller Jeremy Young is finally healthy, though, and his mobility is a huge asset against the active Bearcats pass rush. Leading receiver Chris Johnson, who broke his hand in the seventh game of the season, will also be back at full strength for the bowl. Young has been hurt for much of the year, and the bowl will be the first time that he and Johnson have played together since a mid-September win at East Carolina. That's a big boost for the Eagles' inconsistent passing game, and it could be enough to lead the more motivated squad to an upset win. Southern Miss 27-24

Dec. 14 update: Newspaper headlines and fan message boards have been devoted to the USM coaching search, and it seems that only Bower and the players care about the bowl game right now. Oklahoma State offensive coordinator Larry Fedora is the new USM coach, and like Paul Johnson he will neither coach his old team in its bowl nor interfere with the bowl preparations for his new team. Bower has praised his team's focus, effort and work ethic in practice thus far, and it appears that the players are both excited about their incoming coach and determined to give maximum effort for the outgoing coach. As is the case in Hattiesburg, Cincinnati fans have been more focused on coaching rumors than the bowl game. I haven't concluded that the Bearcats players are quite as disinterested as their fans. I do sense overconfidence here, however, and see no reason to back off a slight lean to the heavy underdog. Southern Miss 27-24

Dec. 19 update: From the moment Lloyd Carr announced his retirement, I tabbed the Bearcats' Brian Kelly as the most likely replacement, then stuck to that prediction until last week when I erroneously decided that it was more likely to be Jim Grobe who got the nod. We'll never know how close Kelly came to getting an offer, but it's clear that he would have been interested and it's equally clear that Michigan was fishing in many different waters. Kelly, who was criticized for openly seeking a more prestigious job while at Central Michigan, has signed an extension with the Bearcats, but not before he was caught up in the coaching rumor mill for a few weeks. The Kelly rumors have been a distraction for the team, and negotiating the extension has surely been a distraction for Kelly himself. Southern Miss continues to prepare well, and Bower indicated that the passing game was really making strides in bowl practice. I previously cited the return of wideout Chris Johnson as a key factor for the Golden Eagles' upset bid, and it looks like Bower is thinking along similar lines. It doesn't take much film study to see that the Bearcats are vulnerable through the air but less so on the ground. It should, however be noted that Cincinnati's prowess against the run was less impressive when the team faced an all-conference caliber back. If the USM passing game can open things up just a bit, 1,400-yard rusher Damion Fletcher could have a big day. The Bearcats are the better team, but not by such a large margin that an inspired effort from Southern Miss can't win this game. The Eagles are obviously poised to play their A-game for the outgoing Bower, and I see no need to change my slight lean to the underdog. Even Cincinnati backers who don't respect what USM brings to the table in this one need to recognize that the Bearcats are not one of the safer picks among the heavily favored teams. Southern Miss 27-24

Orlando, Florida
January 1, 1:00 p.m. ET
Michigan Wolverines versus Florida Gators

Michigan's Chad Henne, Mike Hart and Jake Long headline one of the school's most heralded senior classes ever, but it's a class that never beat Ohio State or won a bowl game. Retiring coach Lloyd Carr's final game is their last opportunity to achieve that elusive postseason victory. Standing in the way is a Florida team that has been utterly dominant during the last month of the season. On the year as a whole, there's not been that much difference in the production of these two squads, but November tells a different tale. The Gators' defense has been consistent all season, stuffing the run and struggling mightily against the pass. The offense, however, has exploded recently, averaging more than 300 yards passing and a whopping 5.7 yards per carry on the ground. Of course, Florida has no running game outside of quarterback Tim Tebow and the occasional reverse to wideout Percy Harvin, but it can certainly be argued that it doesn't matter. Tebow is the biggest ball hog since LeBron James led his YMCA team to the boys 12-and-under title, but it works&provided he doesn't get hurt. The Florida attack is simply on fire, and while Michigan sports a solid defense, the Wolverines will have to play their best game of the season to win. That is not only possible, but likely. The Wolverines were hampered all year by injuries to Henne and Hart. In terms of recent form, this team is the exact opposite of Florida, with offensive production in sharp decline during November. With time to get healthy, the Wolves should be firing on all cylinders, which means they should rack up huge yardage against the SEC's worst pass defense. That's still not quite enough to put them in Florida's class, but a healthy Michigan isn't very far behind. Making up the difference is a tremendous motivational advantage. This senior class has one last opportunity to win a big game, and it happens to be the last in the Lloyd Carr era, and it's not difficult to imagine this team responding to this situation with its best game, adding a nationally-significant win to the legacy of the Henne/Hart era. That desire runs even deeper in these players than turning in a supreme effort for a beloved outgoing coach. A Michigan team playing to full potential is far better than any team Florida beat this year. While the Gators were exceptional down the stretch, it will be surprising if they can beat a fully healthy Michigan team with players on the most important mission of their lives. Michigan 34-31

Dec. 14 update: I haven't uncovered anything that makes me want to retract any of the above, but I will make an amendment: I underestimated the degree to which the Michigan coaching search has been a distraction. Florida still looks like a very good but vulnerable team that's not poised to play its best game, but I am starting to get a little worried about Michigan. The Wolverines' focus and determination will decide the outcome. They're good enough to beat Florida with their A+ game, but there might not be that much margin for error. I still like the underdog here, but it's basically in tossup territory. Check back Dec. 19 for more. On the coaching front: I expect Jim Grobe to accept the Michigan job right after the bowls. Michigan 34-31

Dec. 19 update: The hiring of Rich Rodriguez may quell some of the distraction for the players, but there will still be more buzz among the fans about the coaching staff than there is about the game. I've followed this senior class for four years now, and the only logical conclusion is that this team should want to win this game in the worst way. Carr is widely revered by his players, and for the Henne/Hart/Long era to end with neither a win over Ohio State nor a bowl win should be unthinkable to this group. Make no mistake about it: Michigan's A-game is good enough to beat Florida. If a healthy Henne is clicking with his talented receiving corps it will be too much for the Gators' weak pass defense, and the Michigan defense can stand up to Urban Meyer's offense better than Vanderbilt, South Carolina or Florida State. Lost in all the hubbub about Tim Tebow's performance and the way Florida dominated its stretch run is the fact that the Gators' resume doesn't include any impressive wins. Florida caught Tennessee, South Carolina and FSU when those teams were really struggling and had a bye week prior to playing a Kentucky team right off the LSU upset. In short, Florida's wins, while solid, haven't come against teams nearly as good as a motivated and healthy Michigan, and the Gators failed to deliver against the three best teams they faced. The layoff will cost Florida some of the momentum that made the Gators one of the nation's most productive teams during the season's last month, and Tebow has been run ragged with Heisman interviews and the like since the season ended. Michigan should be in great position to land an upset win, but the distractions have simply gotten out of hand. Even team leader Mike Hart publicly admitted that he's been scouring the internet for coaching rumors every night. Assistant coaches are meeting with Rodriguez soon, and it's certain that many of them are spending some time looking for new employment. I still think Florida plays well below its November level and Michigan pulls this one out, but so far the situation is an uncomfortable one for Wolverine backers. Michigan now finally has a new coach and the real practices have yet to even begin for these squads, so I'm sticking with my slight lean to the underdog, but this is essentially a tossup right now. Michigan 34-31

Tempe, Arizona
Dec. 31, 5:30 p.m. ET
Indiana Hoosiers versus Oklahoma State Cowboys

This should be one of the season's best bowl games, especially for fans of offense. The Hoosiers' quest to fulfill late coach Terry Hoeppner's mission to "Play 13" and their dramatic victory over Purdue to clinch the school's first bowl berth since 1993 provided one of the year's best storylines. Indiana features a potent and balanced offense, and 6-foot-6 wideout James Hardy is an NFL-caliber weapon. Oklahoma State is even more explosive, averaging nearly 250 yards each rushing and passing. Neither defense is exactly feared far and wide, but the Hoosiers have a slight advantage on that side of the ball. Their best unit is a defensive line that's third in the nation in sacks. Oklahoma State, however, is fifth in sacks allowed. Indiana's superior field-goal kicking helps mitigate the Hoosiers' moderate disadvantage in offensive production. And on and on. These look to be very evenly matched teams, and both are fired up to be in the Insight. The Cowboys are the more experienced team, both in general and in the postseason. They've also played the more difficult schedule. Indiana has incredible momentum, though, and the game is a bigger deal for the Hoosiers. Two motivated teams usually produce games that are controlled by the teams' best units, so expect sound offensive execution to yield one of the highest-scoring bowl games. Oklahoma State 45-38

Dec. 14 update: I can't wait to watch this game, but I don't have much confidence in predicting it. Neither defense can hold up. I'm still confident that players and coaches at Oklahoma State, like Memphis, are more enthusiastic about this game than the school's fans. Larry Fedora is a huge loss for the Cowboys, though. As of this writing, it is still unknown who will call OSU's offensive plays in the bowl. Head coach Mike Gundy, who also coaches quarterbacks, may do it himself, but likely only for the bowl. Wide receivers coach Gunter Brewer, son of former Mississippi coach Billy Brewer, is a candidate for the offensive coordinator position on both an interim and permanent basis. Fedora, however, is believed to be wooing Brewer for his staff at Southern Miss. Fedora's loss has been a big disruption, and it's enough for me to change sides for the moment. Indiana still looks like the prototype "team that's already achieved its milestone," and though the Hoosiers will bring enthusiasm, they won't play like a team on a mission. I still like the Cowboys' chances to play well, but it's undoubtedly a bigger game for the Indiana program, and Gundy's crew now has a more serious long-term issue to confront. We'll keep the margin the same, but put the Hoosiers on top for now. Indiana 45-38

Dec. 19 update: There is unfortunately little news to report since the last Insight update. Further study of this matchup has not given me any additional confidence that either defense can hold up in this game. It should be a hotly contested shootout, and both teams should generally play well. The biggest advantage either side enjoys may be the field goal kicking of the Hoosiers' Austin Starr. I'll stick with the Big Ten team, but not with much confidence.Indiana 45-38